FNUS72 KJAX 171151 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT 28 HWY 90...U.S. FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 751 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON OCTOBER 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TODAY AND WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BUT LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. A TRAILING FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)...BCMG PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........EAST 2 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 14 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....54. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........5 16 25 34 40 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 71 83 87 87 RH..............100 73 51 42 42 20 FT WIND......E 1 E 5 E 7 SE 9 SE 9 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1100 3000 4500 4500 TRANSPORT WIND..E 5 E 5 E 10 SE 14 SE 14 DISPERSION INDX.2 2 38 54 54 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....3. CHANCE OF PCPN......20-30 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........41 44 44 57 74 74 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 76 73 71 69 68 RH..............47 63 76 85 90 95 20 FT WIND......SE 8 E 5 E 3 E 3 E 3 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3800 1400 1400 300 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 E 9 E 9 E 7 E 6 E 6 LVORI...........6 6 6 6 6 6 DISPERSION INDX.58 17 17 3 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3. CHANCE OF PCPN......60-70 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...BYRON HART TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111017.CPT28.01/JAX