FNUS74 KLZK 171339 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN MOUNTAIN...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 834 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0845 CDT ON OCTOBER 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NATURAL STATE. THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WEST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MID WEEK AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 80. RH..................76 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 5800 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS EAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............58 63 68 72 77 78 80 80 80 80 RH..............76 67 58 51 47 44 41 40 41 44 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.2 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...5800 FT MSL TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49. RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS........EAST 12 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 24 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3100 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....4. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 15 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 70 65 62 60 59 57 56 55 54 53 50 RH..............44 56 67 74 79 82 87 91 88 86 83 86 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE E E NE NE N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 3 3 6 8 12 13 15 16 15 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 20 25 25 25 EYE LVL WND DIR.S SE SE E E NE NE N N N N N EYE LVL WND SPD.4 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 9 EYE LVL WND GST.5 3 3 3 3 5 5 8 10 13 13 13 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SE E E NE N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 14 14 13 12 12 13 16 20 24 28 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTH 30 TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 5600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....DEF CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............50 49 49 51 53 56 57 59 60 60 61 60 RH..............81 77 76 70 63 57 52 49 45 43 41 41 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..14 13 13 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 20 20 20 EYE LVL WND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N EYE LVL WND SPD.8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 EYE LVL WND GST.13 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 13 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...5600 FT MSL TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.32 35 35 35 33 32 31 30 30 31 31 32 CHC OF PCPN (%).90 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...L PYLE REQUESTED BY...GREG TAYLOR TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111017.MORGA.01/LZK