FNUS73 KAPX 181121 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR PHUN...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 721 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BURN SITE... OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...RESULTING IN ONLY MODEST RH FALLOFF. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY LATER TONIGHT. GOOD RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. RAIN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE BURN SITE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 53. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5400-5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........75 73 73 73 71 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 53 53 53 52 RH..............52 52 52 54 56 20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......700 600 600 500 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........71 71 82 82 82 77 77 77 93 93 93 93 WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............50 49 47 46 45 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 RH..............63 66 71 73 73 76 76 73 73 73 76 79 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..6 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......400 300 200 200 300 300 300 300 200 200 200 100 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 36 TO 41 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........93 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD PERIOD WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............43 45 46 47 47 47 RH..............79 76 76 74 76 76 20 FT WIND......N 6 NE 7 NE 8 NE 11 NE 13 NE 14 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 25 25 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 200 500 800 800 900 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE THOMPSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111018.PHUN_.01/APX