FNUS75 KGJT 172005
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROAN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
205 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1250 MDT ON OCTOBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN. SMOKE
DISPERSION SHOULD REACH THE LOW-END FAIR CATEGORY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT EXPECT THE SMOKE TO SETTLE
QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY AS HEATING WANES AND SHADOWS OVERTAKE
SLOPES. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE BURN AREA WEDNESDAY
FOR MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...AHEAD OF WEAK DISTURBANCE SLATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-48 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR (46956 KT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT 1200 INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    7 MPH AT 1200 AND INCREASING TO 12 MPH BY 1500.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (9000-41200 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH
                    BY 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7000-27826 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT 1200...THEN INCREASING TO 4000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 MPH AT 1200 SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...LATHAN JOHNSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111018.ROAN_.01/GJT