FNUS75 KGJT 171929
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TURKEY CREEK PILES...DOLORES  PLO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
129 PM MDT MON OCT 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW IN BE IN PLACE AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES
ALOFT WITH TROF IN THE EASTERN STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO
BRING GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
NEAR 5000 FT AGL. THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DE-AMPLIFY
OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN FROM NEAR SUNSET TO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH MID
                    MORNING...BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO NEAR 5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING
                    BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING POOR
                    AFTER SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 13 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH MID
                    MID MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS ROBERTSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111018.TURKE.01/GJT