FNUS74 KEPZ 182002
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JAYHILL PRESCRIBED FIRE...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN AS SOME RIDGING MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES TOMORROW
COMPARED TO TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE
TEENS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALSO
AID IN KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN
TONIGHT.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    3 TO 7 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 3 KNOTS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 KNOTS.
VENT CATEGORY.......FAIR.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

$$
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...NM ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111019.JAYHI.03/EPZ