FNUS73 KGRR 191324
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MANISTEE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
924 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1005 EDT ON OCTOBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA WILL RECEIVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WIND
AND RAIN FROM A STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THE RAINS WILL BE SEEN OVER
ALL AREAS STARTING TODAY AND EXTEND THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. MANY
AREAS COULD SEE OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND SPREAD INLAND
EARLY TONIGHT. WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY. DOWNED
TREE LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
INTENSITY AND LENGTH OF WIND.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................76 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 43
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4700-5200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-400 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 1500-1700
                    (EXCELLENT).

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........65     87     90     93     96
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TEMP............45     50     51     50     48
RH..............76     66     63     63     68
20 FT WIND......NE 10  NE 14  NE 17  NE 18  N 18
20 FT GUST......20     30     30     35     35
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 41 TO 46 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....1000-1400 (EXCELLENT) DECREASING
                    TO 900-1000 (EXCELLENT) OVERNIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...TURNAGE
REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111019.MANIS.01/GRR