FNUS75 KPUB 191338
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 11 BLACKLINE...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
738 AM MDT WED OCT 19 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

...ANTICIPATE THAT POOR SMOKE DISPERSALS WILL BE NOTED TODAY AT THE BURN
SITE WITH SMOKE DISPERSALS THEN REACHING THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY AROUND
1300 THURSDAY...

DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
BURN SITE FROM TODAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY.  WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS...GENERALLY POOR SMOKE DISPERSIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.  BY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SMOKE DISPERSIONS TO RISE
INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...A WARMING
TREND SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE BURN SITE...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-64F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 7 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
                    WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-34F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-69 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 8
                    MPH. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    NORTHWEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    BECOMING EAST AT AROUND 6 MPH.  LOCALIZED WIND
                    GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$

REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111019.TA11B.01/PUB