FNUS75 KBOU 191859 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR INDIAN CREEK RX...NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1259 PM MDT WED OCT 19 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS WYOMING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EAST ASPECT...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH. IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING IN THE ATMOSPHERE... SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH COULD OCCUR. THE INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHT WILL COMBINATION TO PRODUCE DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH LOW HUMIDITY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-60. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....36. MAX HUMIDITY........64%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0-4 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68. MIN HUMIDITY........21-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 5400-6400 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 8200-9200 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 6600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR INDIANCREEK RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/19-12 9 0 0 54 26 S 5 5 3 1 NW25 3696 NW 6 17268 P 10/19-13 9 0 0 56 23 S 6 6 3 1 NW23 4099 NW 6 18998 P 10/19-14 9 0 0 59 22 S 6 6 3 1 NW22 4503 W 6 20728 P 10/19-15 9 0 0 60 20 S 6 6 3 1 NW22 4906 W 6 22459 P 10/19-16 9 0 0 60 20 SE 5 5 3 1 NW21 4380 W 5 19376 P 10/19-17 9 0 0 59 22 E 2 2 2 1 NW22 3853 SW 5 16294 P 10/19-18 13 0 0 55 25 CALM 1 2 1 NW23 3327 SW 5 13212 P 10/19-19 13 0 0 50 30 CALM 1 2 1 NW24 2307 S 5 9088 P 10/19-20 13 0 0 47 35 CALM 1 3 1 NW25 1288 S 3 4964 P 10/19-21 13 0 0 45 38 SE 2 2 3 1 NW26 268 SE 3 840 P 10/19-22 13 0 0 43 42 S 2 2 3 1 NW25 242 S 2 601 P 10/19-23 13 0 0 41 45 SW 2 2 3 1 NW25 217 CALM 361 P 10/20-00 13 0 0 40 48 W 2 2 3 1 NW25 191 CALM 122 P 10/20-01 13 0 0 40 50 W 3 3 3 1 NW26 174 NW 2 268 P 10/20-02 13 0 0 38 55 NW 3 3 4 1 NW28 156 NW 3 414 P 10/20-03 13 0 0 38 58 NW 5 5 4 1 NW28 139 NW 5 561 P 10/20-04 13 0 0 38 60 NW 6 6 4 1 NW29 134 NW 6 628 P 10/20-05 13 0 0 37 63 W 6 6 4 1 NW29 130 W 6 695 P 10/20-06 11 0 0 37 66 W 7 7 4 1 NW28 118 W 7 714 P 10/20-07 11 0 0 36 68 W 7 7 4 1 NW28 162 W 8 1137 P 10/20-08 11 0 0 38 64 W 7 7 3 1 NW28 206 W 8 1561 P 10/20-09 11 0 0 46 47 W 7 7 3 1 NW28 250 W 9 1984 P 10/20-10 11 0 0 52 39 NW 7 7 3 1 NW25 1860 NW14 36846 P 10/20-11 11 0 0 56 33 NW 8 8 4 1 NW24 3470 NW20 71708 G 10/20-12 11 0 0 61 27 NW 9 9 4 1 NW23 5080 NW24 106570 V 10/20-13 11 0 0 64 25 NW10 10 3 1 NW22 6547 NW23 132345 V 10/20-14 11 0 0 66 23 NW13 13 3 1 NW22 8014 NW23 158121 E 10/20-15 11 0 0 68 21 NW13 13 2 1 NW22 9480 NW22 183896 E 10/20-16 11 0 0 67 21 NW10 10 2 1 NW21 8067 NW21 149744 V 10/20-17 11 0 0 66 22 N 8 8 2 1 NW21 6654 NW20 115591 V 10/20-18 6 0 0 62 25 N 6 6 2 1 NW21 5241 NW18 81439 G 10/20-19 6 0 0 56 31 N 5 5 2 1 NW21 3559 NW14 54604 F 10/20-20 6 0 0 52 36 NW 5 5 2 1 NW21 1876 W 9 27769 P 10/20-21 6 0 0 49 39 W 5 5 2 1 NW21 194 W 6 935 P 10/20-22 6 0 0 47 43 W 5 5 2 1 NW22 183 W 6 896 P 10/20-23 6 0 0 45 46 W 6 6 3 1 NW23 171 W 6 858 P 10/21-00 6 0 0 44 49 W 6 6 3 1 NW23 160 W 6 820 P 10/21-01 6 0 0 43 52 W 6 6 3 1 NW23 153 W 6 768 P 10/21-02 6 0 0 42 53 W 6 6 3 1 NW23 147 W 6 716 P 10/21-03 6 0 0 41 54 NW 6 6 3 1 NW23 140 NW 6 664 P 10/21-04 6 0 0 41 54 NW 6 6 3 1 NW23 139 W 6 651 P 10/21-05 6 0 0 41 54 W 6 6 3 1 NW23 138 W 6 638 P 10/21-06 9 0 0 40 55 W 6 6 3 1 W23 137 W 6 625 P 10/21-07 9 0 0 39 56 W 6 6 3 1 W21 240 W 5 886 P 10/21-08 9 0 0 41 52 W 6 6 2 1 W18 342 W 5 1148 P 10/21-09 9 0 0 49 39 W 6 6 2 1 W17 445 W 3 1409 P 10/21-10 9 0 0 54 32 W 5 5 2 1 W17 2567 W 6 21488 P 10/21-11 9 0 0 58 28 SW 5 5 3 1 W17 4689 W 8 41567 F 10/21-12 20 2 0 63 23 S 3 3 3 1 W20 6810 W10 61645 G 10/21-13 20 2 0 66 21 S 2 2 3 1 W24 8765 W14 112497 V 10/21-14 20 2 0 68 20 CALM 1 3 1 W29 10719 W16 163348 E 10/21-15 20 2 0 70 18 CALM 1 3 1 W32 12674 W20 214199 E 10/21-16 20 2 0 69 18 W 2 2 3 1 W32 11939 W20 203036 E 10/21-17 20 2 0 67 19 NW 3 3 3 1 W32 11205 NW20 191873 E 10/21-18 24 4 1 63 23 N 6 6 3 1 W31 10471 NW20 180710 E 10/21-19 24 4 1 56 30 N 7 7 3 1 W32 7052 NW17 121155 V 10/21-20 24 4 1 51 37 NW 8 8 3 1 NW32 3634 NW14 61599 G 10/21-21 24 4 1 49 42 NW 8 8 3 1 NW32 216 NW10 2044 P 10/21-22 24 4 1 47 47 NW 7 7 3 1 NW31 247 N10 2096 P 10/21-23 24 4 1 45 53 NW 6 6 2 1 NW28 279 N 9 2149 P 10/22-00 19 4 1 43 56 N 5 5 2 1 NW26 310 N 8 2201 P 10/22-01 19 4 1 41 60 NW 3 3 2 1 NW25 365 NE 6 1554 P 10/22-02 19 4 1 41 62 W 2 2 2 1 NW26 420 E 3 906 P 10/22-03 19 4 1 40 64 W 2 2 2 1 NW28 475 CALM 259 P 10/22-04 19 4 1 40 63 W 2 2 2 1 NW29 487 SE 2 862 P 10/22-05 19 4 1 39 63 W 3 3 2 1 NW31 499 S 3 1466 P 10/22-06 17 3 1 39 66 W 5 5 2 1 NW35 511 SW 5 2069 P 10/22-07 17 3 1 38 67 W 5 5 1 10/22-08 17 3 1 39 63 W 5 5 1 10/22-09 17 3 1 46 48 W 5 5 1 10/22-10 17 3 1 51 40 W 5 5 1 10/22-11 17 3 1 54 35 W 5 5 1 10/22-12 21 2 0 59 29 SW 3 3 1 10/22-13 21 2 0 61 27 SW 3 3 1 10/22-14 21 2 0 63 25 SW 3 3 1 10/22-15 21 2 0 64 23 SW 3 3 1 10/22-16 21 2 0 64 23 SW 3 3 1 10/22-17 21 2 0 62 24 SW 3 3 1 10/22-18 19 4 1 59 27 NW 3 3 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BRIAN FAITH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111020.INDIA.01/BOU