FNUS75 KGJT 200034
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BURNS CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
634 PM MDT WED OCT 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WAVE WILL BE EXITING SOUTHERN COLORADO ON THURSDAY MORNING
WHICH MAY WHICH MAY HELP BREAK THE SURFACE INVERSIONS BY MID MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO REACH NEAR 5000 FT AGL...BUT WINDS IN THIS
LAYER LOOK TO BE UNDER 10 MPH LEADING TO ONLY LOW END FAIR SMOKE
DISPERSAL AFTER NOON TO NEAR SUNSET. THE SURFACE INVERSIONS WILL
FORM NEAR SUNSET AND SMOKE SHOULD LAY DOWN QUICKLY WITH POOR DISPERSAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR FRIDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DISPERSAL CATEGORY REACHING FARTHER INTO THE FAIR CATEGORY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
                    THROUGH MID MORNING TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY NOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO
                    LOW END FAIR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT
                    DOWNSLOPE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN NEAR SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS
                    THROUGH MID MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING BECOMING FAIR BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT WAGNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111020.BURNS.01/GJT