FNUS72 KTAE 201036
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR BURN UNIT 259...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
636 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (850)942-8835.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON THE LATEST DISPERSION AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING OVER ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES (INCLUDING
GADSDEN IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE) EXCEPT FOR DIXIE COUNTY (WHICH DOES
NOT DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT TODAY). OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WE MAY
SEE 1 TO 2 HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT COINCIDENT
WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...SO A
COMMENT IN THE REMARKS SECTION WILL SUFFICE. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LONGER OVER NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...DISPERSIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
TOO LOW FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY AIR HOLDING IN
PLACE...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ERC VALUES OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR BIG BEND OR PANHANDLE...JUST IN CASE THEY REACH 35 OR
GREATER.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 84.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............48     59     64     65     67
RH..............61     42     34     31     30
20 FT WIND......W 5    W 7    W 8    W 7    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15     15

$$

FORECASTER...TIM BARRY
REQUESTED BY...EUGENE D  WATKINS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111020.BURNU.01/TAE