FNUS75 KCYS 212154
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR KESA...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
354 PM MDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 MDT ON OCTOBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BURN SITE BY 4 PM.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER
THE BURN SITE ON SATURDAY.  SOME SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.  DRY...MILD AND BREEZY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE BURN SITE BY MONDAY EVENING AND WILL USHER IN COLDER
AND WETTER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) WITH A FEW
                    SPRINKLES THROUGH LATE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 8 TO 14 MPH BECOMING LIGHT EAST BY
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 400 FEET AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 MPH BECOMING LIGHT EAST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT (2500 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 BY MID MORNING WITH
                    GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT (112700 KNOT-FT) BY MIDDAY.

$$
FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...JIM ANDERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111021.KESA_.01/CYS