FNUS75 KRIW 211355
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUDDY MT  PILES...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
755 AM MDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0730 MDT ON OCTOBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A MOVING DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING...AND WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
BURN SITE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE... SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TODAY UNDER THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE BURN SITE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE BURN
SITE...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS
NOT UNLIKELY. SHALLOW MORNING INVERSIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
BURN SITE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...AND SHOULD BREAK BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE BURN SITE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) BY 0900.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-52.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-33 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH BY 1000. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-5100 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (37100-67900 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-36.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-74 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO AROUND 2300-3000 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (28700-57000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) BY 0600
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) BY
                    1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-38 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AT
                    10 TO 15 BY 1200. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4400-5500 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (39800-72500 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH.
.TUESDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND
17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...CAM POTTER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111021.MUDDY.01/RIW