FNUS75 KBOU 221329 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SKY ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 727 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HOLDING ACROSS THE STATE. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT WILL ALSO SET UP A BATTLE AGAINST NORMAL DIURNAL UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. WINDS SHOULD CONFORM TO GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS SUNDAY...BUT INCREASE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH HIGHER FIRE DANGER THEN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62. MIN HUMIDITY........13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-8 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST/NORTHWEST 6-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO 8400-9400 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69. MIN HUMIDITY........8%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5800-6800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 10400-11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 8200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SKY ISLAND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/22-07 24 2 0 34 44 W 5 5 2 1 NW44 1386 W 8 16350 P 10/22-08 24 2 0 38 39 W 5 5 2 1 NW44 2612 NW12 31897 P 10/22-09 19 2 0 45 31 W 6 6 2 1 NW44 3838 NW14 47445 F 10/22-10 19 2 0 52 24 SE 5 8 2 1 NW44 5624 NW17 92962 G 10/22-11 19 2 0 55 20 SE 6 10 2 1 NW43 7411 NW20 138480 V 10/22-12 16 1 0 58 17 SE 8 12 2 1 NW43 9198 NW23 183997 E 10/22-13 16 1 0 60 16 W 9 16 2 1 NW43 9320 NW22 179389 E 10/22-14 16 1 0 60 14 W 9 16 2 1 NW43 9441 NW22 174780 E 10/22-15 19 1 0 61 13 W 9 16 2 1 NW43 9563 NW21 170172 E 10/22-16 19 1 0 60 14 NW10 17 2 1 NW40 8911 NW18 147621 V 10/22-17 19 1 0 58 15 NW10 16 2 1 NW38 8259 NW17 125071 V 10/22-18 5 3 1 55 17 NW 9 15 2 1 NW35 7606 NW15 102521 V 10/22-19 5 3 1 50 21 NW 8 8 2 1 NW31 5359 NW13 70226 G 10/22-20 5 3 1 46 25 NW 6 6 2 1 NW29 3112 NW10 37932 P 10/22-21 5 3 1 44 28 W 5 5 2 1 NW28 866 NW 8 5637 P 10/22-22 5 3 1 42 30 W 5 5 2 1 NW29 712 W 8 4682 P 10/22-23 5 3 1 41 32 W 5 5 2 1 NW32 559 W 8 3727 P 10/23-00 1 3 1 39 33 W 6 6 2 1 NW35 406 W 8 2772 P 10/23-01 1 3 1 38 34 W 6 6 2 1 NW35 356 W 8 2405 P 10/23-02 1 3 1 37 36 W 6 6 2 1 N33 307 W 8 2038 P 10/23-03 1 3 1 36 36 W 6 6 2 1 N32 257 W 7 1672 P 10/23-04 1 3 1 36 36 W 6 6 2 1 N32 241 W 7 1496 P 10/23-05 1 3 1 35 37 W 5 5 3 1 N32 225 W 7 1320 P 10/23-06 1 0 0 35 37 W 5 5 3 1 NW32 213 W 7 1176 P 10/23-07 1 0 0 36 36 W 6 6 4 1 NW31 1110 W 7 7357 P 10/23-08 1 0 0 41 30 W 7 7 5 1 NW31 2007 W 7 13538 P 10/23-09 1 0 0 49 21 W 7 7 5 1 NW31 2904 W 8 19720 P 10/23-10 1 0 0 56 16 SW 7 7 5 1 NW31 5147 NW12 70452 G 10/23-11 1 0 0 61 13 SW 6 6 5 1 NW32 7390 NW16 121184 V 10/23-12 1 0 0 64 11 S 6 6 5 1 NW32 9632 NW21 171916 E 10/23-13 1 0 0 66 10 S 6 6 5 1 NW32 10425 NW21 185900 E 10/23-14 1 0 0 67 9 S 7 7 5 1 NW31 11218 NW21 199884 E 10/23-15 1 0 0 68 8 S 7 7 5 1 NW30 12011 NW21 213868 E 10/23-16 1 0 0 67 8 S 7 7 5 1 NW29 10095 NW20 174241 E 10/23-17 1 0 0 65 9 SW 7 7 5 1 NW26 8179 W18 134615 V 10/23-18 3 0 0 61 10 SW 7 7 5 1 NW24 6263 W17 94988 G 10/23-19 3 0 0 55 13 SW 7 7 5 1 NW22 4266 W15 64127 G 10/23-20 3 0 0 50 15 W 8 8 5 1 NW21 2268 W13 33266 P 10/23-21 3 0 0 48 17 W 8 13 5 1 W20 270 W10 2405 P 10/23-22 3 0 0 45 20 W 8 14 5 1 W20 251 W10 2316 P 10/23-23 3 0 0 44 22 W 9 14 5 1 W21 232 W12 2227 P 10/24-00 3 0 0 42 24 W 9 15 5 1 W22 213 W12 2139 P 10/24-01 3 0 0 40 26 W 9 15 5 1 W23 197 W12 1978 P 10/24-02 3 0 0 39 29 W 9 15 5 1 W25 182 W12 1817 P 10/24-03 3 0 0 38 31 W 9 15 5 1 W26 166 W12 1657 P 10/24-04 3 0 0 37 32 W 9 15 5 1 W26 159 W12 1585 P 10/24-05 3 0 0 36 34 W 9 15 5 1 W26 152 W12 1514 P 10/24-06 5 0 0 36 36 W 9 15 5 1 W26 145 W12 1442 P 10/24-07 5 0 0 37 35 W 8 8 5 1 W25 529 W12 5442 P 10/24-08 5 0 0 41 29 W 6 6 5 1 SW25 913 W12 9442 P 10/24-09 5 0 0 49 22 W 6 6 5 1 SW25 1297 W12 13442 P 10/24-10 5 0 0 56 16 W 8 13 5 1 SW26 3436 W15 55286 F 10/24-11 5 0 0 61 14 W12 18 5 1 SW29 5576 W17 97129 G 10/24-12 7 0 0 64 12 W15 24 5 1 SW31 7716 W21 138972 V 10/24-13 7 0 0 66 11 W17 28 5 1 SW32 8874 W23 180527 E 10/24-14 7 0 0 67 10 W18 29 5 1 SW33 10032 W25 222083 E 10/24-15 7 0 0 68 9 W18 30 5 1 SW35 11190 W28 263638 E 10/24-16 7 0 0 66 9 W17 28 4 1 SW37 10113 W28 244611 E 10/24-17 7 0 0 64 9 W16 25 3 1 W39 9035 W29 225584 E 10/24-18 10 3 1 61 11 W14 22 2 1 W40 7957 W30 206557 E 10/24-19 10 3 1 55 13 W13 20 2 1 W43 6636 W31 175806 E 10/24-20 10 3 1 50 16 W12 17 2 1 W44 5316 W32 145055 V 10/24-21 10 3 1 48 18 W10 16 2 1 W46 3995 W33 114304 V 10/24-22 10 3 1 46 20 W10 17 2 1 W48 3043 W31 85109 G 10/24-23 10 3 1 45 23 W12 17 2 1 W49 2090 W29 55915 F 10/25-00 9 3 1 43 25 W12 18 2 1 W51 1138 W26 26720 P 10/25-01 9 3 1 42 28 W12 18 2 1 W49 1008 W25 22367 P 10/25-02 9 3 1 40 31 W12 17 2 1 W47 878 W23 18015 P 10/25-03 9 3 1 39 34 W10 16 2 1 W46 747 W21 13662 P 10/25-04 9 3 1 39 38 W 9 15 2 1 W46 678 W18 11257 P 10/25-05 9 3 1 38 42 W 8 13 2 1 W47 609 W16 8851 P 10/25-06 27 5 1 37 46 W 7 7 2 1 W48 540 W14 6446 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE HOWARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111022.SKYIS.01/BOU