FNUS73 KDLH 222016
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGAMI WILDFIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1444 CDT ON OCTOBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK EAST THROUGH MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FIRE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN POPS SUNDAY DUE TO THE
MODELS SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY WITH FOCUS TURNING TO A
WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FIRE
AREA.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 70 PERCENT.
PRECIPITATION.......0.15 TO 0.25 INCH.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13300) DECREASING TO POOR (2700) IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............46     40     37     39     40     42
RH..............60     70     77     84     90     98
20 FT WIND DIR..S      S      S      S      S      SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3      4      7      9      9      8
20 FT WIND GUST.       6      11     13     15     12

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 40
                    PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7600) INCREASING TO GOOD (59100).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............42     43     46     51     53     49
RH..............98     92     71     56     54     58
20 FT WIND DIR..SW     W      W      W      W      W
20 FT WIND SPD..7      5      6      8      10     7
20 FT WIND GUST.12     10     11     14     16     12

$$
FORECASTER...AMANDA
REQUESTED BY...MIKE LOCKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111022.PAGAM.02/DLH