FNUS76 KMFR 231213
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
513 AM PDT SUN OCT 23 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1050 PM PDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 PDT ON OCTOBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAINFALL
WELL NORTH OF THE BURN SITE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MORNING
INVERSION WILL BE MODERATE AGAIN TODAY...BUT A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BREAKING THE INVERSION AND
ALLOWING NORTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN. THE INVERSION WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY TONIGHT...BUT A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY WINDIER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH EITHER FRONT...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL
INCREASE AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-31 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 4-7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR THE SURFACE INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8-13 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-37.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8-13 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-38 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 6-9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 8-11 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 27 TO 30. HIGHS 59 TO 62. NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO
11 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
CLEAR. LOWS 24 TO 27. HIGHS 57 TO 60. NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO
11 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
CLEAR. LOWS 25 TO 28. HIGHS 59 TO 62. LIGHT WIND.


$$

REQUESTED BY...HEATHER MCRAE
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE