FNUS75 KCYS 231600
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR KESA...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1000 AM MDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON OCTOBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS FORECAST FOR THE BURN AREA TODAY. EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE. THE DODGE CREEK RAWS SITE
SHOWING CURRENT WINDS FROM WEST AT 23 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH. EXPECT YOU WILL SEE ROUGHLY HALF OF THOSE WINDS...SO EXPECT TO
SEE SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS BY AFTERNOON OF 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
22 MPH IN YOUR EXPOSED AREAS. SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE LESS WITH 8 TO 12
MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 17 MPH. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WYOMING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 TO
                    15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH BY NOON...PERSISTING
                    THROUGH 4 PM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (60400-123500 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO POOR (55600-2000 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (36600-112700 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...CLAYCOMB
REQUESTED BY...ORIN KITTELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111023.KESA_.01/CYS