FNUS75 KGJT 222104
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAPIN SAFETY ZONE...NPS _ MESA VERDE NP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 PM MDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. MID-LEVEL WARMING
WILL CAP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE SMOKE DISPERSAL IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY. MIXING WILL
IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. LOOK FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THE
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS.


.SUNDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AFTER 1400...BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAX: 24000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    3800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 MPH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........41-46%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 6000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%). INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1030...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO
                    8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING FAIR...
                    INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...JOANIE LAWRENCE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111023.CHAPI.01/GJT