FNUS75 KBOU 232033 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER NORTH FORK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 220 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN OVERDONE IN THE FORECAST THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BETTER MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG CHANGE WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75. MIN HUMIDITY........10%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 8400-9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 6400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43. MAX HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55. MIN HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTH 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR LOWER NORTH FORK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/23-14 0 0 0 71 13 SE 9 14 3 1 NW31 9028 NW15 121274 V 10/23-15 0 0 0 72 13 SE 8 8 3 1 NW30 9324 NW16 126504 V 10/23-16 0 0 0 71 14 E 7 7 3 1 NW30 7060 NW12 87243 G 10/23-17 0 0 0 67 16 NE 6 6 3 1 W30 4797 W 8 47982 F 10/23-18 1 0 0 61 20 N 5 5 3 1 W30 2533 W 3 8720 P 10/23-19 1 0 0 56 24 NW 3 3 3 1 W30 1753 W 3 5980 P 10/23-20 1 0 0 52 27 W 2 2 4 1 W29 973 SW 3 3240 P 10/23-21 1 0 0 49 31 SW 2 2 4 1 W28 193 SW 3 499 P 10/23-22 1 0 0 47 34 SW 3 3 4 1 W28 175 SW 5 636 P 10/23-23 1 0 0 46 36 SW 6 6 4 1 W26 157 SW 6 772 P 10/24-00 1 0 0 45 38 W 7 7 4 1 W26 140 SW 7 909 P 10/24-01 1 0 0 45 36 W 8 8 4 1 W28 138 SW 8 901 P 10/24-02 1 0 0 44 33 W 8 8 4 1 W28 137 W 8 892 P 10/24-03 2 0 0 44 31 W 8 8 4 1 W28 135 W 8 884 P 10/24-04 5 0 0 43 29 W 8 8 4 1 W26 128 W 8 856 P 10/24-05 8 0 0 43 27 W 8 8 4 1 W25 121 W 8 829 P 10/24-06 9 0 0 43 27 W 8 8 4 1 W24 114 W 8 801 P 10/24-07 9 0 0 42 29 W 8 8 4 1 W23 176 W 9 1387 P 10/24-08 9 0 0 45 28 W 7 7 4 1 W23 237 W 9 1972 P 10/24-09 9 0 0 53 23 W 7 7 4 1 SW22 299 W10 2558 P 10/24-10 9 0 0 61 17 W 7 7 4 1 SW20 2535 W15 52734 F 10/24-11 9 0 0 67 13 W 7 7 4 1 W17 4770 W20 102910 V 10/24-12 11 0 0 70 11 W 7 7 4 1 W17 7006 W25 153086 E 10/24-13 11 0 0 73 10 W 9 9 3 1 W21 7983 W25 178599 E 10/24-14 11 0 0 74 10 W12 17 3 1 W25 8960 W26 204113 E 10/24-15 11 0 0 75 10 W13 20 2 1 W30 9937 W26 229626 E 10/24-16 11 0 0 74 10 W12 17 2 1 W33 8146 W24 178359 E 10/24-17 11 0 0 70 13 W 9 9 2 1 W36 6355 W22 127091 V 10/24-18 11 3 1 64 17 W 7 7 2 1 W37 4564 W20 75824 G 10/24-19 11 3 1 58 22 W 7 7 2 1 W36 3343 W17 53979 F 10/24-20 11 3 1 53 27 W 7 7 3 1 W32 2121 W15 32135 P 10/24-21 11 3 1 55 27 W 7 7 3 1 W29 900 W13 10291 P 10/24-22 11 3 1 52 31 SW 7 7 2 1 W28 903 W15 11225 P 10/24-23 11 3 1 51 34 SW 8 8 2 1 W26 702 W15 8880 P 10/25-00 13 3 1 50 38 SW 8 13 2 1 W26 502 W15 6534 P 10/25-01 13 3 1 49 40 SW 8 14 2 1 W30 567 W14 6986 P 10/25-02 13 3 1 48 42 SW 9 15 2 1 W33 632 W14 7437 P 10/25-03 13 3 1 47 43 SW 9 15 2 1 W37 697 W13 7889 P 10/25-04 13 3 1 46 44 SW 9 14 2 1 W35 666 W10 6259 P 10/25-05 13 3 1 45 46 SW 8 13 2 1 W31 635 W 8 4630 P 10/25-06 29 3 1 44 49 SW 7 7 2 1 W29 604 W 6 3000 P 10/25-07 29 3 1 44 51 SW 6 6 2 1 W32 1502 W 6 7854 P 10/25-08 29 3 1 45 51 S 5 5 2 1 W37 2399 W 6 12707 P 10/25-09 29 3 1 48 49 S 3 3 2 1 W41 3297 W 6 17561 P 10/25-10 29 3 1 50 46 S 2 2 2 1 W44 3969 W 7 22969 P 10/25-11 29 3 1 52 45 CALM 1 2 1 W45 4641 W 7 28377 P 10/25-12 62 20 4 53 44 CALM 1 2 1 W45 5312 W 7 33786 P 10/25-13 62 20 4 54 44 W 2 2 2 1 W43 5346 SW 7 31355 P 10/25-14 62 20 4 54 43 NW 3 3 2 1 W39 5380 SW 6 28924 P 10/25-15 62 20 4 54 43 N 5 5 2 1 W36 5414 S 6 26493 P 10/25-16 62 20 4 54 43 N 6 6 2 1 W32 4341 S 7 22766 P 10/25-17 62 20 4 52 45 NE 7 7 2 1 W30 3268 E 7 19038 P 10/25-18 76 51 27 49 50 NE 8 13 2 1 SW30 2195 E 8 15310 P 10/25-19 76 51 27 45 59 NE 8 13 2 1 SW35 1763 E 7 11823 P 10/25-20 76 51 27 42 68 E 8 8 2 1 SW40 1331 E 7 8336 P 10/25-21 76 51 27 40 73 E 7 7 2 1 SW41 898 E 6 4849 P 10/25-22 76 51 27 39 80 E 7 7 2 1 W33 1380 NE12 18764 P 10/25-23 76 51 27 38 85 E 6 6 2 1 W23 1862 NE17 32679 P 10/26-00 90 70 53 37 90 E 6 6 2 1 W17 2343 N23 46594 F 10/26-01 90 70 53 36 91 E 6 6 2 1 W24 2475 N17 35977 P 10/26-02 90 70 53 35 92 E 6 6 2 1 W36 2606 NE12 25359 P 10/26-03 90 70 53 34 93 E 6 6 2 1 W45 2738 NE 6 14741 P 10/26-04 90 70 53 34 95 NE 6 6 2 1 W47 2630 NE 5 11416 P 10/26-05 90 70 53 33 98 NE 6 6 2 1 W45 2523 NE 3 8091 P 10/26-06 90 70 53 32 100 NE 6 6 2 1 W40 2416 E 2 4766 P 10/26-07 90 70 53 32 96 NE 6 6 1 10/26-08 90 70 53 31 92 NE 7 7 1 10/26-09 90 70 53 32 87 NE 7 7 1 10/26-10 90 70 53 32 82 NE 7 7 1 10/26-11 90 70 53 32 78 NE 8 13 1 10/26-12 90 70 53 32 75 NE 8 13 1 10/26-13 90 70 53 32 72 NE 8 13 1 10/26-14 90 70 53 32 70 NE 7 7 1 10/26-15 90 70 53 32 68 NE 7 7 1 10/26-16 90 70 53 31 68 NE 7 7 1 10/26-17 90 70 53 30 69 N 6 6 1 10/26-18 79 24 5 28 75 N 6 6 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...VAUGHN JONES REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111024.LOWER.01/BOU