FNUS75 KPUB 251523
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 9...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
923 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS MORNING AS A DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO EVEN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN.  HOWEVER SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FRONT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE BURN AREA...IN WHICH CASE A
SOUTHWEST WIND COULD PERSIST LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. PLEASE CALL NWS
PUEBLO IF YOUR OBSERVATIONS DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST AND YOU NEED
FURTHER ASSISTANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAVER BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(61 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
                    20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5500 FT AGL UNTIL
                    1200...THEN 10000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 4500
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(66 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN UNTIL 0500...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1000...THEN RAIN
                    MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER NOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-41F.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111025.RANGE.01/PUB