FNUS75 KRIW 242156
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUDDY MTN  PILES RX...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON OCTOBER 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE BURN AREA BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTH
WIND. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS WELL AS CLOUDINESS
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL PUSH SHOULD CREATE SOME LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM 0400 TO 0700 TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY MIGHT HAVE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...BEFORE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 12 MPH
RANGE BEFORE PICKING UP TUESDAY EVENING AND PUTTING DOWN A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MCDONALD

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-30.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH BECOMING NORTH NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH AROUND 15
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH AROUND 15
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (100000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (40000 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES. THE BEST
                    CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE EARLY MORNING
                    AND EARLY EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-35.  TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE THROUGH
                    THE DAY.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND
                    20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (24000-40000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
13 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.THURSDAY...NOT AS COOL. MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MCDONALD
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG SHORT
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111025.MUDDY.01/RIW