FNUS73 KDVN 271337
FWSDVN

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUD BOTTOMS SU...PORT LOUISA NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
837 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON OCTOBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MIGRATE
EAST...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 56.
RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM 34 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...INCREASING
                    TO 8 TO 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL AT IGNITION INCREASING TO 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 700 FT
                    AFTER SUNSET.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     54     55     54
RH..............57     45     37     36
EYE LEVEL WIND..330/7 330/8  320/10 320/6
EYE LEVEL GUST..10     11     12     8
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56.
RH..................MIN 37 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
WIND SHIFT..........WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 1 PM.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FT AT SUNRISE...INCREASING TO 1500 FT
                    AGL TOWARD 11 AM...REACHING 7000 TO 8000 FT
                    EARLY AFTERNOON. DECREASING TO AROUND 1200 FT TOWARD
                    6 PM.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO
                    25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...SHEETS
REQUESTED BY...ERIK ACKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111027.MUDBO.01/DVN