FNUS76 KMFR 311540
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 AM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 PDT ON OCTOBER 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
MIN HUMIDITIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AT THE BURN
SITE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL OCCUR UNDER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND WILL BE SHOWERY. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR 0.20".

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-52.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT DOWNSLOPE EAST WIND 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12
    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH.


.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-26.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL IN THE EARLY EVENING DECREASING TO
                    500 FT AGL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.


.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-43.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 2500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
EXTENDED WINDS ADJUSTED TO EYE LEVEL.

.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 23 TO 28. HIGHS 50 TO 55. NORTHEAST WINDS 2 TO
6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3-7 MPH. MAX RH 65-75 PERCENT. MIN RH 25-35
PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS 31 TO 36. HIGHS 43 TO 53.
SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 6 MPH BECOMING NORTH 2 TO 6 MPH. MAX RH
80-90 PERCENT. MIN RH 55-65 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. LOWS 24 TO 29.
HIGHS 38 TO 43. WEST WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH. MAX RH 90-100 PERCENT. MIN
RH 70 TO 80 PERCENT.


$$
FORECASTER...LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...HEATHER MCRAE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111031.SMOKE.01/MFR