FNUS73 KDVN 011244
FWSDVN

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLIAMS PRAIRIE...JOHNSON COUNTY CONSERVATION BOARD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 AM CDT TUE NOV 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON NOVEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING WARM...DRY AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS.  LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO TURN
SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 MPH.  LIKELY THIS WIND SWITCH WILL HAPPEN BEFORE IGNITION TIME.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 69.
RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE AT OR
                    BEFORE IGNITION TIME.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................NONE.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION INCREASING TO
                    4000-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  DECREASING
                    AGAIN TO 2000 FT AGL BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 18
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............57     65     67     66
RH..............47     44     43     45
EYE LEVEL WIND..190/10 200/14 180/15 180/14
EYE LEVEL GUST..15     20     20     20
HAINES INDEX....5      5      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE EXPECTED.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................NONE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9
                    TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER...LE
REQUESTED BY...DAVID WEHDE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111101.WILLI.02/DVN