FNUS75 KGJT 312236
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY ROCK RX...USFS SAN JUAN NF PAGOSA RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
436 PM MDT MON OCT 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON NOVEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE FIRE SITE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED MONDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH INVERSIONS
LIMITING MIXING AND TRANSPORT WIND.

.TODAY (THROUGH SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
    (60-70%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
                    TO 17 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH BY
    1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600-2200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (85800 KNOT-FT) BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL BY
    1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 24
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-72%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (87500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
                    (3700-17000 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
    13 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3100-23000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$

FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...FUELS TECH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111101.CHIMN.01/GJT