FNUS73 KPAH 011207 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG HOLLOW RX UPDATE...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 707 AM CDT TUE NOV 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON NOVEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BUT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 10 MPH. HOWEVER...AT THE RIDGE TOP SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY PUSHING 15 MPH AT TIMES WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET INTO THE 30S BY IGNITION TIME...AND WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL MIX DOWN SOME INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IF WE DO NOT HAVE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HUMIDITIES COULD END UP IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER...IF SOME MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE...HUMIDITIES MAY NOT DROP OUT OF THE 30S. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 68. RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL BY LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN INCREASING TO 24 TO 26 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7 AT SUNSET. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............61 64 66 67 66 65 61 RH..............38 34 30 27 29 30 36 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.2 3.6 2.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.16 23 26 26 24 16 7 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43. RH..................MAX 76 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 52 50 48 47 46 RH..............43 54 58 65 68 71 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1300 1200 1200 1200 1200 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70. RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 39 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............45 56 66 69 RH..............76 55 43 34 20 FT WIND......S 5G10 S 7G15 S 10G20 S 10G25 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1400 4100 4600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 S 36 S 36 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...KEITH P KELLEY FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111101.BIGHO.02/PAH