FNUS75 KRIW 011634
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUDDY MTN  PILES...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1034 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1050 MDT ON NOVEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

AN EARLY WINTER STORM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE BURN AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER 3 AM MDT.  COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.  TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 10 TO 20
INCHES IS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-78 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6300-13100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....18-20.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-97 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (30700-47300 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-28.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-48 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 17
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    15 TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    14 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (26900-41500 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 19. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 21 MPH.
.THURSDAY...NOT AS COOL. BREEZY. MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW IN THE MORNING. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 26 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COLDER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 13.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG SHORT
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111101.MUDDY.02/RIW