FNUS75 KBOU 020020 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 620 PM MDT TUE NOV 1 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDTIONS AND A SLOW WARM UP FOR EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....9. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1000-1200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....23. MIN HUMIDITY........61%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 5-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....10. MAX HUMIDITY........93%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTH 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0400. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....39. MIN HUMIDITY........35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 1600-2600 FT AGL AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1600. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1500 UNTIL 1600. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 12. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/01-18 98 82 71 30 76 NW12 18 3 1 SW53 2730 NW10 23712 P 11/01-19 98 82 71 23 95 NW12 18 3 1 SW45 2236 NW13 22929 P 11/01-20 98 82 71 18 100 NW12 18 3 1 SW35 1742 N16 22145 P 11/01-21 98 88 81 18 100 N13 21 3 1 SW25 1249 N20 21362 P 11/01-22 98 88 81 17 95 N14 22 3 1 SW23 1175 N21 21339 P 11/01-23 98 88 81 16 92 N15 24 3 1 SW23 1101 N23 21316 P 11/02-00 100 91 86 15 90 NE16 25 3 1 SW23 1027 N24 21293 P 11/02-01 100 91 86 14 85 NE17 28 3 1 SW21 1003 NE23 20437 P 11/02-02 100 91 86 15 77 NE17 28 2 1 SW18 979 NE23 19580 P 11/02-03 100 91 86 14 76 NE17 28 2 1 SW17 955 NE23 18723 P 11/02-04 100 91 86 13 77 NE16 26 2 1 W15 976 NE21 17275 P 11/02-05 100 91 86 13 76 E15 24 2 1 W15 998 NE18 15826 P 11/02-06 93 69 51 12 80 E14 22 2 1 NW16 1019 NE16 14377 P 11/02-07 93 69 51 11 87 E12 20 2 1 NW16 1108 NE15 13871 P 11/02-08 93 69 51 10 95 E10 16 2 1 NW20 1196 NE13 13365 P 11/02-09 93 69 51 10 100 E 8 13 2 1 NW24 1285 NE12 12859 P 11/02-10 93 69 51 12 96 NE 7 7 2 1 NW33 1750 NE 9 11580 P 11/02-11 93 69 51 14 86 N 6 6 2 1 N45 2215 N 7 10301 P 11/02-12 63 26 6 17 76 NW 6 6 2 1 N52 2680 N 3 9023 P 11/02-13 63 26 6 20 68 NW 6 6 2 1 N53 2795 N 5 11798 P 11/02-14 63 26 6 22 63 NW 6 6 2 1 N49 2910 NW 6 14572 P 11/02-15 63 26 6 23 61 NW 6 6 2 1 N45 3025 NW 7 17347 P 11/02-16 63 26 6 22 63 W 5 5 3 1 N41 2371 NW 7 13652 P 11/02-17 63 26 6 21 67 W 5 5 3 1 N39 1717 W 7 9956 P 11/02-18 30 6 1 20 69 SW 3 3 4 1 N38 1063 W 7 6260 P 11/02-19 30 6 1 17 79 SW 3 3 4 1 NW36 816 SW 7 4789 P 11/02-20 30 6 1 15 86 S 3 3 4 1 NW36 568 SW 7 3318 P 11/02-21 30 6 1 14 85 S 5 5 4 1 NW35 321 SW 7 1847 P 11/02-22 30 6 1 14 85 S 6 6 1 11/02-23 30 6 1 14 85 S 7 7 1 11/03-00 19 0 0 13 86 S 8 13 4 1 NW31 203 SW 9 1635 P 11/03-01 19 0 0 13 85 S 8 14 1 11/03-02 19 0 0 13 81 S 9 14 1 11/03-03 19 0 0 12 84 S 9 15 4 1 NW24 127 S10 1166 P 11/03-04 19 0 0 12 81 S 9 15 1 11/03-05 19 0 0 12 81 SW10 16 1 11/03-06 16 0 0 11 83 SW10 16 5 1 W31 93 SW13 984 P 11/03-07 16 0 0 11 86 SW10 16 1 11/03-08 16 0 0 10 93 S10 16 1 11/03-09 16 0 0 16 73 S10 16 5 1 W26 290 SW17 4340 P 11/03-10 16 0 0 21 61 S12 17 1 11/03-11 16 0 0 29 46 SW12 18 1 11/03-12 15 0 0 33 41 SW13 21 5 1 SW22 1367 SW26 32002 P 11/03-13 15 0 0 35 39 SW14 22 1 11/03-14 15 0 0 37 36 SW14 23 1 11/03-15 15 0 0 39 35 SW15 24 5 1 SW31 2594 SW33 76073 G 11/03-16 15 0 0 39 36 SW16 26 1 11/03-17 15 0 0 38 37 SW18 29 1 11/03-18 23 0 0 35 42 SW18 30 5 1 SW32 2347 SW39 78976 G 11/03-19 23 0 0 31 48 SW16 26 1 11/03-20 23 0 0 28 53 SW14 22 1 11/03-21 23 0 0 28 52 SW13 21 4 1 SW37 483 SW25 10580 P 11/03-22 23 0 0 28 51 SW15 24 1 11/03-23 23 0 0 27 51 SW18 30 1 11/04-00 12 4 1 27 52 SW22 35 2 1 11/04-01 12 4 1 26 53 SW22 35 1 11/04-02 12 4 1 27 53 SW20 32 1 11/04-03 12 4 1 25 58 SW18 30 2 1 11/04-04 12 4 1 25 60 SW20 30 1 11/04-05 12 4 1 25 62 SW20 32 1 11/04-06 21 10 2 24 66 SW21 33 2 1 11/04-07 21 10 2 24 71 SW20 31 1 11/04-08 21 10 2 23 77 S18 29 1 11/04-09 21 10 2 26 68 S17 28 2 1 11/04-10 21 10 2 30 62 S18 30 1 11/04-11 21 10 2 34 53 SW21 32 1 11/04-12 60 27 7 37 49 SW22 35 2 1 11/04-13 60 27 7 38 47 SW22 36 1 11/04-14 60 27 7 39 45 SW22 36 1 11/04-15 60 27 7 40 43 SW22 35 2 1 11/04-16 60 27 7 40 43 S21 33 1 11/04-17 60 27 7 39 45 S20 31 1 11/04-18 78 42 19 35 52 S18 30 2 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/SWE REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111102.BIGCR.01/BOU