FNUS73 KLSX 021111
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDIAN TRAIL...MISSOURI DEPT OF CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
611 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON NOVEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTH OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AFTER A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................59 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WIND AT 3 TO 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WIND 9 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION/3300 FT AGL MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 26 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (12050 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING. EMBEDDED THUNDER.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0100...THEN NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHEAST WIND 4 TO 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHEAST WIND 11 TO 15 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 11 MPH LATE.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 48.
RH..................MIN 68 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WIND SHIFTING FROM SOUTWEST TO NORTH...3 TO 4 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (6284 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...CVKING
REQUESTED BY...SUSAN FARRINGTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111102.INDIA.01/LSX