FNUS76 KMFR 020508
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1008 PM PDT TUE NOV 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON NOVEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MILD AND SUNNY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...EAST FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH FLOW IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LOW. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS ARE ON TAP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HEAVY CLOUDS
AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN MAY BE MIXED AT FIRST. COOLER WEATHER
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY FOLLOWS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 25 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 2-4 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 3-5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 4-8 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FEET INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 5-10 MPH VEERING TO SOUTHEAST 10 MPH BY
                    NOON...THEN TO SOUTHWEST 15 MPH BY LATE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR EARLY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 23-28.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-5 MPH EASING TO 1-3 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 MPH EASING TO 3-7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FEET AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
                    INCH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-7 MPH.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 20-25.
HIGHS NEAR 40. NORTHWEST WIND 4-8 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 15-20.
HIGHS NEAR 40. SOUTHWEST WIND 4-8 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS NEAR 20. HIGHS 40-45. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND 3-5 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...STAVISH
REQUESTED BY...HEATHER MCRAE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111102.SMOKE.01/MFR