FNUS76 KMFR 021451
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
751 AM PDT WED NOV 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON NOVEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE BURN AREA DRY TODAY BUT
WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WARM LAYER NOT FAR ABOVE GROUND WILL
LIMIT MIXING HEIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BURN AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. A COLD AND
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. MIXING HEIGHT ON
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER LOW ALTHOUGH MIXING WINDS WILL BE
MODERATELY STRONG.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.
RH..................29 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE
                    TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 30.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 38.
RH..................MIN 55 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...BUNNAG
REQUESTED BY...HEATHER MCRAE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111102.SMOKE.02/MFR