FNUS75 KBOU 030105 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 657 PM MDT WED NOV 2 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP THE SMOKE DISPERSAL POOR ON THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF FAIR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. IMPROVING SMOKE DISPERSAL FOR FRIDAY WITH WEAKENING INVERSIONS AND STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....10. MAX HUMIDITY........76%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400. FAIR AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....24. MAX HUMIDITY........65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45. MIN HUMIDITY........39%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 4200-5200 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/02-18 30 0 1 21 57 CALM 1 4 1 N41 1987 W 9 16346 P 11/02-19 30 0 1 18 58 W 2 2 4 1 N38 1480 W 8 11720 P 11/02-20 30 0 1 15 59 W 3 3 4 1 N33 973 W 7 7094 P 11/02-21 30 0 1 15 59 W 5 5 4 1 N30 466 W 6 2468 P 11/02-22 30 0 1 14 58 SW 5 5 4 1 N28 390 W 6 2008 P 11/02-23 30 0 1 13 60 SW 6 6 4 1 N26 314 SW 6 1547 P 11/03-00 19 0 0 12 60 SW 6 6 4 1 N24 237 SW 6 1087 P 11/03-01 19 0 0 12 60 SW 6 6 4 1 NW22 208 SW 6 1022 P 11/03-02 19 0 0 13 58 SW 7 7 4 1 NW18 179 SW 7 957 P 11/03-03 19 0 0 12 61 SW 7 7 4 1 NW16 150 S 7 893 P 11/03-04 19 0 0 12 61 SW 7 7 4 1 NW14 132 S 7 753 P 11/03-05 19 0 0 12 62 SW 6 6 5 1 W13 115 S 6 613 P 11/03-06 19 0 0 11 64 SW 6 6 5 1 W12 98 S 6 474 P 11/03-07 19 0 0 11 69 SW 6 6 5 1 W13 99 SW 6 524 P 11/03-08 17 0 0 10 76 SW 7 7 5 1 SW14 100 SW 7 575 P 11/03-09 17 0 0 15 66 SW 7 7 5 1 SW17 101 SW 7 625 P 11/03-10 17 0 0 20 57 SW 7 7 5 1 SW20 259 SW10 3114 P 11/03-11 17 0 0 27 45 SW 7 7 5 1 S22 416 SW13 5603 P 11/03-12 15 0 0 30 42 SW 8 13 5 1 S25 573 SW16 8092 P 11/03-13 15 0 0 36 33 SW 9 15 5 1 S31 1173 SW21 25538 P 11/03-14 15 0 0 39 31 SW10 17 5 1 SW36 1774 SW25 42985 F 11/03-15 15 0 0 40 30 SW13 21 5 1 SW39 2374 SW29 60432 G 11/03-16 15 0 0 39 31 SW15 24 5 1 SW40 2123 SW31 56225 F 11/03-17 15 0 0 38 33 SW17 26 5 1 SW40 1873 SW32 52018 F 11/03-18 23 0 0 35 39 SW18 30 5 1 SW39 1576 SW33 45043 F 11/03-19 23 0 0 32 43 SW18 30 5 1 SW36 1212 SW31 33764 P 11/03-20 23 0 0 29 46 SW18 30 5 1 SW32 848 SW29 22486 P 11/03-21 23 0 0 29 45 SW18 30 5 1 SW31 484 SW26 11208 P 11/03-22 23 0 0 29 44 SW20 31 5 1 SW33 414 SW25 9353 P 11/03-23 23 0 0 28 45 SW21 33 5 1 SW36 344 SW24 7498 P 11/04-00 12 0 0 27 46 SW21 33 5 1 SW39 274 SW24 5643 P 11/04-01 12 0 0 27 50 SW21 33 4 1 SW40 245 SW23 4852 P 11/04-02 12 0 0 27 53 SW20 31 4 1 SW41 217 SW21 4062 P 11/04-03 12 0 0 26 59 SW18 30 3 1 SW43 188 SW20 3271 P 11/04-04 12 0 0 26 57 SW17 28 3 1 SW47 177 SW18 2923 P 11/04-05 12 0 0 26 54 S17 28 3 1 SW51 166 SW17 2576 P 11/04-06 21 4 1 26 53 S16 25 3 1 SW55 155 S16 2228 P 11/04-07 21 4 1 25 57 S16 25 3 1 SW59 163 S17 2371 P 11/04-08 21 4 1 24 65 S16 25 3 1 SW61 170 S17 2514 P 11/04-09 21 4 1 28 62 S16 25 3 1 SW62 177 S17 2658 P 11/04-10 21 4 1 31 58 S17 28 3 1 SW64 937 S23 25390 P 11/04-11 21 4 1 36 51 S18 30 3 1 SW67 1697 SW28 48122 F 11/04-12 64 4 1 39 46 S20 31 3 1 SW68 2457 SW33 70854 G 11/04-13 64 4 1 42 42 S20 31 3 1 SW69 3614 SW36 116322 V 11/04-14 64 4 1 44 40 S20 31 2 1 SW69 4771 SW38 161789 E 11/04-15 64 4 1 45 39 S20 31 2 1 SW70 5927 SW40 207257 E 11/04-16 64 4 1 44 39 S18 30 2 1 SW69 4652 SW37 155627 E 11/04-17 64 4 1 41 43 S18 30 2 1 SW68 3376 S32 103997 V 11/04-18 77 24 5 38 48 S17 28 2 1 SW68 2101 S29 52367 F 11/04-19 77 24 5 33 58 S17 28 2 1 SW67 1474 S25 36154 P 11/04-20 77 24 5 29 68 S17 28 2 1 SW67 847 S23 19942 P 11/04-21 77 24 5 29 69 S17 28 2 1 SW68 220 S20 3729 P 11/04-22 77 24 5 28 72 S17 28 2 1 SW71 211 S20 3609 P 11/04-23 77 24 5 27 78 S17 28 2 1 SW76 202 S20 3489 P 11/05-00 73 43 20 25 83 S17 28 2 1 S79 194 S20 3369 P 11/05-01 73 43 20 25 85 S16 25 2 1 S82 238 S18 3813 P 11/05-02 73 43 20 26 83 S15 24 3 1 S82 282 SW17 4257 P 11/05-03 73 43 20 24 91 S14 22 3 1 S81 326 SW16 4701 P 11/05-04 73 43 20 24 96 S12 12 3 1 S78 363 SW15 4471 P 11/05-05 73 43 20 24 100 S 8 8 3 1 S74 399 SW13 4240 P 11/05-06 83 67 47 24 100 S 7 7 3 1 S67 436 SW10 4009 P 11/05-07 83 67 47 23 100 SW 7 7 3 1 S56 1111 SW13 13993 P 11/05-08 83 67 47 22 100 W 9 9 3 1 S44 1786 W14 23976 P 11/05-09 83 67 47 23 98 W10 10 3 1 S33 2461 NW16 33959 P 11/05-10 83 67 47 25 90 W10 10 3 1 S30 3429 NW20 65815 G 11/05-11 83 67 47 27 81 W12 12 3 1 SW29 4397 NW24 97671 G 11/05-12 94 74 54 28 74 W13 13 3 1 SW31 5365 W28 129527 V 11/05-13 94 74 54 30 67 W16 25 3 1 SW33 5950 W31 163386 E 11/05-14 94 74 54 30 63 W20 31 2 1 SW37 6535 W35 197246 E 11/05-15 94 74 54 31 59 W23 37 2 1 W40 7121 W37 231106 E 11/05-16 94 74 54 30 58 W24 39 2 1 W41 7284 W40 253871 E 11/05-17 94 74 54 28 59 W24 39 2 1 W43 7447 W43 276636 E 11/05-18 75 38 16 26 64 W23 37 2 1 W43 7610 W45 299401 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/SWE REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111103.BIGCR.01/BOU