FNUS72 KJAX 031143 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT 28 BURN...USDA- FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 743 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON NOVEMBER 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE IGNITION SITE WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY MID MORNING AND THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........EAST 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....33. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........50 54 55 58 53 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 67 74 77 75 RH..............85 68 56 53 56 20 FT WIND......NE 2 E 5 S 7 SW 8 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 2900 3300 4900 4300 TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 SE 9 SE 9 S 10 SW 12 DISPERSION INDX.11 22 22 31 32 CHC OF PCPN (%).5 10 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....11. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............7. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........53 46 46 54 70 70 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 63 59 57 56 54 RH..............63 84 96 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 6 S 7 S 8 S 10 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4100 1100 1100 800 500 500 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 SW 12 SW 12 SW 12 SW 13 SW 13 LVORI...........7 7 7 7 7 7 DISPERSION INDX.32 8 8 10 11 11 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 25 25 30 50 50 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....55. CHANCE OF PCPN......10-20 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111103.CPT28.01/JAX