FNUS72 KJAX 032302 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRAIRIE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 702 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1839 EDT ON NOVEMBER 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING... THE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING. ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 PM...THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 60 PERCENT BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE FIRE SITE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH STABILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 10 MPH. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING. HUMIDITIES WILL PROGRESSIVELY DROP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MINIMUM VALUES AROUND 45 PERCENT POSSIBLE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-900 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....10. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............8. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........21 44 61 61 73 73 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 62 58 56 54 52 RH..............76 93 100 100 100 100 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 W 8 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....3000 1100 1100 800 500 600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 13 S 12 S 12 SW 10 SW 10 SW 12 LVORI...........8 8 8 8 8 8 DISPERSION INDX.31 8 11 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 20 20 60 60 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....78. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT...EARLY MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........62 29 29 23 16 16 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 50 57 64 67 67 RH..............99 86 63 48 44 43 20 FT WIND......W 8 W 9 NW 10 NW 12 NW 13 NW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 20 25 20 MIX HGT (FT)....700 1000 1000 2100 3200 3200 TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 NW 15 NW 15 NW 22 NW 22 NW 22 DISPERSION INDX.12 21 19 60 79 79 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 10 10 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 $$ FORECASTER...ENYEDI REQUESTED BY...USFWS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111103.HONEY.01/JAX