FNUS76 KMFR 030355
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMOKEY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT WED NOV 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 PDT ON NOVEMBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION COULD
BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST BY EVENING WITH SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY. SNOW ARRIVING TOWARD
                    LATE MORNING. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH EASING TO 2-4 MPH AND
                    SHIFTING WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
                    10-15 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    TO 15-20 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN WEST
                    5-10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................76 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-21.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2-4 MPH SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND EASING
                    TO 1-2 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO NEAR ZERO.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-40.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WIND 1-3 MPH SHIFTING SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 18 TO 23. HIGHS 38 TO 43.
SOUTH WIND 3-6 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 22 TO 27. HIGHS 38 TO 43. SOUTHWEST WINDS
2-5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 24 TO 29.
HIGHS 41 TO 46. SOUTHWEST WINDS 2-5 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...STAVISH
REQUESTED BY...HEATHER MCRAE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111103.SMOKE.01/MFR