FNUS75 KBOU 080010 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 510 PM MST MON NOV 7 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN PUSH EAST INTO KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...ENOUGH MIXING AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....15. MAX HUMIDITY........83%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....29. MIN HUMIDITY........54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5000-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....7. MAX HUMIDITY........95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30. MIN HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .VETERANS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/07-17 80 64 44 26 71 N 9 15 3 1 SW14 4660 NE 8 34411 P 11/07-18 80 64 44 24 78 N 8 14 3 1 W13 3700 NE 8 27450 P 11/07-19 80 64 44 22 83 N 7 7 3 1 W12 2741 NE 9 20488 P 11/07-20 80 64 44 21 83 NE 6 6 3 1 W10 1781 NE 9 13526 P 11/07-21 80 65 45 20 82 N 5 5 3 1 W 9 1489 NE 9 11271 P 11/07-22 80 65 45 19 78 N 5 5 3 1 W 9 1198 NE 9 9015 P 11/07-23 80 65 45 19 76 N 5 5 3 1 W 8 906 NE 8 6759 P 11/08-00 73 45 22 18 76 N 5 5 3 1 W 9 889 N 8 6421 P 11/08-01 73 45 22 18 76 N 5 5 3 1 W 9 871 N 8 6083 P 11/08-02 73 45 22 17 77 N 5 5 3 1 NW 9 854 N 8 5744 P 11/08-03 73 45 22 17 78 N 5 5 3 1 NW 9 787 N 7 4791 P 11/08-04 73 45 22 17 80 N 3 3 3 1 NW 9 720 N 6 3838 P 11/08-05 73 20 4 16 81 N 3 3 3 1 NW 9 653 N 5 2884 P 11/08-06 73 20 4 16 82 N 3 3 3 1 NW10 1324 N 6 6100 P 11/08-07 73 20 4 17 79 N 3 3 3 1 NW12 1994 N 6 9316 P 11/08-08 67 20 4 20 71 N 3 3 3 1 NW13 2665 N 6 12531 P 11/08-09 67 20 4 23 63 NW 5 5 3 1 NW13 3761 NW 7 25909 P 11/08-10 67 20 4 26 57 NW 6 6 2 1 NW14 4858 NW 8 39286 P 11/08-11 67 20 4 27 54 NW 7 7 2 1 NW15 5955 NW10 52664 F 11/08-12 63 20 4 28 54 NW 8 14 2 1 NW16 6123 NW12 64211 G 11/08-13 63 20 4 28 56 NW 9 16 2 1 NW20 6291 NW14 75758 G 11/08-14 63 20 4 29 57 NW10 16 2 1 NW21 6459 W16 87306 G 11/08-15 63 20 4 28 60 NW 9 15 2 1 NW22 5853 W16 81575 G 11/08-16 63 20 4 26 64 W 8 13 2 1 NW22 5248 W17 75845 G 11/08-17 54 0 0 23 74 W 7 7 2 1 NW22 4643 W17 70115 G 11/08-18 54 0 0 19 84 W 6 6 2 1 NW23 3573 W16 51888 F 11/08-19 54 0 0 17 90 W 6 6 2 1 NW24 2502 W14 33662 P 11/08-20 54 0 0 15 90 W 6 6 2 1 NW25 1431 W13 15435 P 11/08-21 54 0 0 14 91 W 6 6 2 1 NW25 1126 W12 11704 P 11/08-22 54 0 0 13 89 W 6 6 2 1 W26 821 W10 7973 P 11/08-23 28 0 0 12 88 W 6 6 2 1 W26 516 W 9 4241 P 11/09-00 28 0 0 12 88 W 5 5 2 1 NW25 460 W 8 3426 P 11/09-01 28 0 0 11 88 SW 5 5 2 1 NW25 404 W 7 2610 P 11/09-02 28 0 0 10 89 SW 3 3 2 1 NW24 349 W 6 1794 P 11/09-03 28 0 0 10 89 SW 3 3 2 1 NW24 312 W 6 1509 P 11/09-04 28 0 0 9 90 SW 3 3 2 1 NW24 275 W 5 1223 P 11/09-05 7 0 0 9 92 SW 3 3 2 1 N25 239 W 5 937 P 11/09-06 7 0 0 9 95 SW 2 2 2 1 N26 444 W 5 2134 P 11/09-07 7 0 0 10 92 SW 2 2 2 1 N28 650 W 6 3332 P 11/09-08 7 0 0 15 79 SW 2 2 2 1 N29 855 W 6 4529 P 11/09-09 7 0 0 19 66 SW 3 3 2 1 N30 2039 W 8 17205 P 11/09-10 7 0 0 24 56 W 6 6 2 1 N30 3223 W 9 29882 P 11/09-11 7 0 0 26 53 W 7 7 2 1 N30 4406 NW12 42558 F 11/09-12 7 0 0 28 51 W 8 13 2 1 N29 4473 NW13 47304 F 11/09-13 7 0 0 28 52 W 8 13 2 1 N28 4541 W13 52051 F 11/09-14 7 0 0 29 51 W 8 13 2 1 N26 4608 W14 56797 F 11/09-15 7 0 0 28 53 W 7 7 2 1 N28 3963 W14 48194 F 11/09-16 7 0 0 27 57 W 6 6 3 1 N29 3319 W14 39592 P 11/09-17 7 0 0 25 61 W 5 5 3 1 N30 2674 W14 30989 P 11/09-18 7 0 0 22 65 W 5 5 3 1 NW31 2073 W13 23851 P 11/09-19 7 0 0 21 67 SW 6 6 3 1 NW32 1472 W13 16713 P 11/09-20 7 0 0 20 66 SW 6 6 3 1 NW33 870 W13 9575 P 11/09-21 7 0 0 19 65 SW 6 6 3 1 NW32 713 W13 7788 P 11/09-22 7 0 0 18 62 SW 6 6 3 1 NW32 556 SW13 6001 P 11/09-23 7 0 0 17 61 SW 6 6 3 1 NW31 399 SW13 4214 P 11/10-00 7 0 0 17 61 SW 7 7 3 1 NW32 368 SW13 3978 P 11/10-01 7 0 0 16 62 SW 7 7 3 1 NW33 337 SW13 3741 P 11/10-02 7 0 0 16 63 SW 8 13 3 1 W36 306 SW13 3505 P 11/10-03 7 0 0 16 64 SW 8 13 3 1 NW38 281 SW13 3196 P 11/10-04 7 0 0 15 65 SW 8 13 3 1 NW40 255 SW13 2887 P 11/10-05 13 2 0 15 68 SW 8 13 3 1 NW43 230 SW13 2578 P 11/10-06 13 2 0 15 71 SW 9 15 3 1 NW43 343 SW17 5881 P 11/10-07 13 2 0 17 69 SW10 16 4 1 NW43 456 SW21 9183 P 11/10-08 13 2 0 21 61 SW12 18 4 1 NW41 569 SW25 12485 P 11/10-09 13 2 0 25 53 SW13 20 4 1 NW41 1133 SW26 27967 P 11/10-10 13 2 0 30 47 SW14 21 5 1 NW40 1698 W29 43448 F 11/10-11 13 2 0 32 45 SW14 22 5 1 NW40 2262 W30 58929 F 11/10-12 13 2 0 33 43 SW14 23 5 1 NW41 2395 W30 63188 G 11/10-13 13 2 0 34 43 SW14 22 5 1 W43 2529 W31 67446 G 11/10-14 13 2 0 34 41 SW14 22 5 1 W44 2662 W31 71705 G 11/10-15 13 2 0 34 42 SW14 22 5 1 W45 2446 W31 66063 G 11/10-16 13 2 0 33 44 SW14 23 4 1 W47 2230 W31 60420 G 11/10-17 24 2 0 30 47 SW14 22 3 1 W48 2014 W31 54778 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111107.BIGCR.02/BOU