FNUS75 KGJT 070437
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELFLOWER PILES...VAIL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
937 PM MST SUN NOV 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON NOVEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ON
MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LEADING
TO MARGINAL FAIR CONDITIONS. RIDGE TOP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DEPTH OF THE VALLEY MAY NOT
ALLOW THESE TO REACH THE BURN SITE RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN
FORECAST TRANSPORT WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
EXPECTED. CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY HELP PREVENT STRONG INVERSION FROM
SETTING UP AND WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT ON TUESDAY...SMOKE
DISPERSAL CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO THE LOW END OF THE
FAIR CATEGORY.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 32 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 5 MPH THROUGH LATE
                    MORNING...BECOMING NORTH WIND AT AROUND 5 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN LIFTING TO
                    FAIR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
                    5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    NORTH AT 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....0 TO 5 ABOVE.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY BY LATE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 MPH...THEN DOWNVALLEY AT 5 TO
                    8 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....23-28 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING...
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 5300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 11 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...T TALBOT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111107.BELFL.01/GJT