FNUS75 KBOU 151635 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 934 AM MST TUE NOV 15 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BURN SITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST...AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE. DRY...MILD...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30. MIN HUMIDITY........54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....16. MAX HUMIDITY........84%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 0200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0800...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....28. MIN HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/15-09 80 38 16 27 57 W18 26 2 1 W73 5021 W44 190536 E 11/15-10 80 38 16 28 56 W20 30 2 1 W71 5507 W44 206961 E 11/15-11 82 39 17 29 54 W21 31 2 1 W70 5994 W43 223386 E 11/15-12 82 39 17 29 55 W21 31 2 1 W68 5883 W41 212137 E 11/15-13 82 39 17 30 55 W21 31 2 1 W66 5772 W40 200887 E 11/15-14 88 39 17 29 57 W20 30 2 1 W64 5661 W39 189638 E 11/15-15 88 39 17 29 59 W18 28 2 1 W63 5315 W38 176463 E 11/15-16 88 39 17 27 65 W17 25 3 1 W63 4970 W38 163289 E 11/15-17 82 22 4 24 73 W16 24 3 1 W63 4625 W37 150115 E 11/15-18 82 22 4 21 81 W15 23 3 1 W63 4001 W36 126107 V 11/15-19 82 22 4 20 82 W15 23 2 1 W62 3377 W35 102099 V 11/15-20 75 22 4 19 84 W15 23 2 1 W62 2753 W32 78091 G 11/15-21 75 22 4 18 84 W15 22 2 1 W62 2926 W33 85187 G 11/15-22 75 22 4 19 81 W15 22 2 1 W62 3099 W35 92283 G 11/15-23 71 26 6 19 79 W15 23 2 1 W63 3272 W35 99379 G 11/16-00 71 26 6 18 79 W16 23 2 1 W64 3495 W36 110111 V 11/16-01 71 26 6 18 78 W16 25 2 1 W66 3719 W37 120842 V 11/16-02 66 23 5 18 77 W17 26 2 1 W68 3942 W38 131574 V 11/16-03 66 23 5 17 78 W17 26 2 1 W70 4161 W39 142518 V 11/16-04 66 23 5 17 76 W17 26 2 1 W73 4381 W40 153462 E 11/16-05 66 10 2 17 76 W17 26 2 1 NW75 4600 W41 164406 E 11/16-06 66 10 2 17 79 W17 25 2 1 NW77 4773 W40 167208 E 11/16-07 66 10 2 17 80 W16 24 2 1 NW78 4946 W39 170011 E 11/16-08 39 10 2 19 76 W16 24 2 1 NW79 5119 W39 172813 E 11/16-09 39 10 2 22 70 W16 24 2 1 NW81 5306 W39 182913 E 11/16-10 39 10 2 24 64 W16 24 3 1 NW81 5492 W40 193013 E 11/16-11 30 9 2 26 62 W16 24 3 1 NW79 5679 W41 203113 E 11/16-12 30 9 2 26 61 W15 23 3 1 NW78 5694 W39 194472 E 11/16-13 30 9 2 27 61 W15 22 4 1 NW76 5710 NW38 185831 E 11/16-14 30 9 2 27 60 W14 21 4 1 NW74 5725 NW36 177190 E 11/16-15 30 9 2 27 62 W13 20 4 1 NW73 5400 W32 154630 E 11/16-16 30 9 2 26 63 W13 20 4 1 NW63 4393 W24 94152 G 11/16-17 46 6 1 26 65 SW12 18 4 1 NW62 4004 W23 78614 G 11/16-18 46 6 1 25 67 SW 9 16 4 1 NW59 3481 W22 66715 G 11/16-19 46 6 1 24 67 SW 8 13 4 1 NW56 2958 W21 54815 F 11/16-20 46 6 1 24 67 SW 7 7 4 1 NW54 2436 W21 42916 F 11/16-21 46 6 1 23 66 SW 7 7 3 1 NW52 2231 W22 41619 F 11/16-22 46 6 1 23 65 SW 8 13 3 1 W52 2026 W23 40321 F 11/16-23 35 4 1 23 65 SW 9 15 2 1 W52 1821 W24 39024 P 11/17-00 35 4 1 23 65 SW10 16 2 1 W53 1662 W25 36346 P 11/17-01 35 4 1 22 65 SW12 18 2 1 W53 1503 W26 33668 P 11/17-02 35 4 1 22 67 SW13 21 2 1 W53 1344 W26 30991 P 11/17-03 35 4 1 22 70 SW13 21 2 1 W52 1284 W28 30364 P 11/17-04 35 4 1 22 73 SW14 22 2 1 NW48 1225 W28 29738 P 11/17-05 30 7 1 22 77 SW14 25 2 1 NW45 1166 W29 29112 P 11/17-06 30 7 1 22 80 SW15 26 2 1 W44 1296 W30 34138 P 11/17-07 30 7 1 23 79 SW15 26 2 1 W41 1426 W31 39164 P 11/17-08 30 7 1 26 72 SW16 29 2 1 W40 1556 W32 44190 F 11/17-09 30 7 1 29 63 SW17 31 2 1 W39 2251 W35 70984 G 11/17-10 30 7 1 33 55 SW18 33 2 1 W39 2947 W37 97779 G 11/17-11 32 5 1 35 52 SW20 36 2 1 W39 3642 W39 124573 V 11/17-12 32 5 1 36 51 SW21 37 2 1 W41 3902 W40 137388 V 11/17-13 32 5 1 37 51 SW21 37 2 1 W45 4163 W41 150202 E 11/17-14 32 5 1 37 51 SW21 37 2 1 W48 4424 W43 163016 E 11/17-15 32 5 1 37 54 SW21 37 2 1 W51 4132 W41 149529 V 11/17-16 32 5 1 36 58 SW21 37 2 1 W54 3841 W40 136042 V 11/17-17 55 8 2 34 63 SW20 36 2 1 W56 3549 W40 122554 V 11/17-18 55 8 2 32 68 SW18 33 2 1 W58 3110 W38 103188 V 11/17-19 55 8 2 31 70 SW17 31 2 1 W60 2671 W36 83822 G 11/17-20 55 8 2 30 69 SW16 29 2 1 W61 2231 W33 64457 G 11/17-21 55 8 2 30 68 SW15 26 2 1 W62 2058 W32 58414 F 11/17-22 55 8 2 29 66 SW15 26 2 1 W64 1884 W32 52371 F 11/17-23 41 11 2 29 66 SW15 26 2 1 W64 1710 W31 46329 F 11/18-00 41 11 2 29 66 SW15 26 2 1 W64 1579 W31 42208 F 11/18-01 41 11 2 28 67 SW15 26 2 1 W63 1448 SW30 38088 P 11/18-02 41 11 2 28 69 SW15 26 2 1 W63 1317 SW30 33967 P 11/18-03 41 11 2 28 72 SW15 26 2 1 W63 1213 SW30 31640 P 11/18-04 41 11 2 27 75 SW16 29 2 1 W64 1110 SW30 29313 P 11/18-05 44 15 3 27 77 SW16 29 2 1 W66 1006 SW31 26985 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111115.BIGCR.01/BOU