FNUS72 KJAX 162042
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRAIRIE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1526 EST ON NOVEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST...AND BECOMING GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THURSDAY...AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
EXPECTED.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....9.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........78     79     83     87     90     92
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............75     71     69     68     67     66
RH..............81     91     96     96     96     96
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1500   900    700    500    500    600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17  SW 14  SW 12  SW 10  SW 10  SW 10
LVORI...........6      6      6      6      6      6
DISPERSION INDX.M      M      M      M      M      M
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     30     30     40     50     50
LAL.............3      3      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
                    MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 0900...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....70.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............MISSING.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........87     76     58     35     21     15
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............65     65     70     73     74     72
RH..............96     96     79     56     45     41
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 9    W 12   NW 14  NW 14  N 14
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     25     25     20
MIX HGT (FT)....800    1200   1900   2800   3200   2900
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13   W 15   NW 18  NW 21  NW 22  NW 21
LVORI...........M      M      M      M      M      M
DISPERSION INDX.M      M      M      M      M      M
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     20     10     10     0      0
LAL.............1      2      1      1      1      1

$$

NOTE:UPDATED INFORMATION FOR THIS FIRE CAN BE FOUND ON OUR
WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/?N=FIRE

FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...USFWS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111116.HONEY.01/JAX