FNUS76 KMFR 160654
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR LD 4A...GFI/USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1054 PM PST TUE NOV 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 PST ON NOVEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BURN SITE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINTAINING CLOUDS...RAIN...AND SNOW LEVELS
ABOVE 5000 FEET. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...PEAKING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AT THE LOWEST ELEVATION NEAR 3500 FEET WILL
BE ABOUT 25 PERCENT LESS THAN WINDS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATION. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES.
AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AT THE BURN SITE.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........85-95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 16 MPH
                    EARLY INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST 25 TO
                    35 MPH LATE.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SNOW SHOWERS
                    ABOVE 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. 1 INCH
                    ACCUMULATION BY THE EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-38.
MIN HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT EARLY INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
COLDER. SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 25 TO 30. HIGHS 25 TO 30. WEST WINDS
8 TO 13 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS 22 TO 27. HIGHS 26 TO 31. WEST WINDS
6 TO 11 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
SNOW LIKELY. LOWS 27 TO 32. HIGHS 33 TO 38. LIGHT WIND.

$$
FORECASTER...KEENE
REQUESTED BY...SEAN HENDRIX
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111116.LD4A_.01/MFR