FNUS75 KBOU 171707 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1007 AM MST THU NOV 17 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-40. MIN HUMIDITY........36-42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-26. MAX HUMIDITY........60-68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 16-26 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 1200...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-42. MIN HUMIDITY........42-48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 16-26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40-56 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 0600. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/17-09 11 0 0 22 59 SW14 23 2 1 W48 1100 SW26 34538 P 11/17-10 11 0 0 29 48 SW14 22 2 1 W49 1921 W33 64092 G 11/17-11 37 0 0 32 43 SW14 22 2 1 W53 2743 W39 93646 G 11/17-12 37 0 0 35 41 SW14 23 2 1 W55 3061 W39 105504 V 11/17-13 37 0 0 36 40 SW15 23 2 1 W58 3379 W40 117361 V 11/17-14 41 0 0 37 39 SW15 24 2 1 W60 3697 W40 129219 V 11/17-15 41 0 0 36 40 SW15 24 2 1 W61 3456 W40 120550 V 11/17-16 41 0 0 35 42 SW15 24 2 1 W62 3216 W40 111882 V 11/17-17 37 0 0 34 44 SW15 24 2 1 W63 2975 W40 103213 V 11/17-18 37 0 0 32 47 SW15 24 2 1 W63 2606 W39 88934 G 11/17-19 37 0 0 31 49 SW15 24 2 1 W64 2237 W38 74654 G 11/17-20 37 0 0 30 50 SW15 24 2 1 W66 1868 SW37 60375 G 11/17-21 37 0 0 30 51 SW15 24 2 1 W67 1769 SW37 56369 F 11/17-22 37 0 0 29 52 SW15 24 2 1 W69 1670 SW36 52363 F 11/17-23 19 0 0 29 53 SW16 25 2 1 W70 1571 SW36 48357 F 11/18-00 19 0 0 29 54 SW20 31 2 1 W73 1464 SW36 45543 F 11/18-01 19 0 0 28 55 SW23 37 2 1 W75 1356 SW37 42729 F 11/18-02 19 0 0 28 56 SW25 40 2 1 W77 1249 SW37 39915 P 11/18-03 19 0 0 28 58 SW24 38 2 1 W77 1356 SW38 44772 F 11/18-04 19 0 0 27 61 SW21 33 2 1 W77 1463 SW39 49629 F 11/18-05 57 0 0 28 60 SW18 30 2 1 W76 1570 SW40 54485 F 11/18-06 57 0 0 29 62 SW17 29 2 1 W75 1732 SW40 59873 F 11/18-07 57 0 0 29 63 SW18 29 2 1 W74 1894 SW39 65260 G 11/18-08 57 0 0 30 63 SW18 30 2 1 W74 2055 SW39 70647 G 11/18-09 57 0 0 32 60 SW20 32 2 1 W74 2910 SW43 114971 V 11/18-10 57 0 0 34 55 SW22 35 2 1 W76 4006 SW46 169101 E 11/18-11 70 15 1 36 51 SW23 37 2 1 W77 5102 SW51 223230 E 11/18-12 70 15 1 37 48 SW23 38 2 1 W79 5192 SW52 231871 E 11/18-13 70 15 1 38 45 SW23 37 2 1 W82 5281 SW53 240513 E 11/18-14 70 15 1 38 45 SW23 37 2 1 W84 5371 SW53 249154 E 11/18-15 70 15 1 37 48 SW23 37 2 1 W86 4682 SW52 213019 E 11/18-16 70 15 1 35 55 SW22 36 2 1 W89 3992 SW51 176885 E 11/18-17 86 31 10 33 62 SW22 35 2 1 W89 3302 SW49 140750 V 11/18-18 86 31 10 29 76 SW22 35 2 1 W87 2688 SW46 110464 V 11/18-19 86 31 10 28 78 SW21 35 2 1 W85 2074 SW43 80177 G 11/18-20 86 31 10 27 81 SW21 33 2 1 W84 1460 SW39 49891 F 11/18-21 86 31 10 26 85 SW21 32 2 1 W84 1357 SW37 43936 F 11/18-22 86 31 10 26 81 SW20 31 2 1 SW84 1254 SW35 37981 P 11/18-23 93 70 53 26 81 SW17 28 2 1 SW82 1151 SW32 32026 P 11/19-00 93 70 53 26 80 SW14 22 2 1 SW76 1404 SW26 28932 P 11/19-01 93 70 53 24 84 W 9 15 2 1 SW69 1656 W20 25837 P 11/19-02 93 70 53 24 85 W 6 6 2 1 SW64 1908 W14 22743 P 11/19-03 93 70 53 23 88 NW 5 5 2 1 SW64 2335 W13 23560 P 11/19-04 93 70 53 22 89 NW 6 6 2 1 SW67 2762 W10 24377 P 11/19-05 95 71 54 23 85 N 7 7 2 1 SW70 3189 W 9 25195 P 11/19-06 95 71 54 21 88 NW 9 9 2 1 SW74 3812 W13 44075 F 11/19-07 95 71 54 21 83 NW12 12 2 1 SW77 4435 W15 62954 G 11/19-08 95 71 54 21 76 NW13 13 2 1 SW81 5058 W18 81834 G 11/19-09 95 71 54 22 70 NW15 24 2 1 W81 5363 W23 106640 V 11/19-10 95 71 54 22 66 W17 28 2 1 W79 5667 W26 131446 V 11/19-11 82 49 25 23 63 W17 29 2 1 W78 5971 W30 156252 E 11/19-12 82 49 25 23 61 W17 29 2 1 W79 6104 W29 154328 E 11/19-13 82 49 25 23 61 W16 26 2 1 W82 6237 W28 152404 E 11/19-14 82 49 25 23 62 W15 24 2 1 W82 6370 W28 150480 E 11/19-15 82 49 25 23 64 W13 13 2 1 W81 6001 W26 138498 V 11/19-16 82 49 25 22 68 W10 10 2 1 W79 5632 W25 126516 V 11/19-17 67 25 5 21 71 SW 8 8 2 1 W77 5263 W25 114534 V 11/19-18 67 25 5 21 70 SW 7 7 2 1 W75 4759 W25 105958 V 11/19-19 67 25 5 20 70 SW 6 6 2 1 W74 4256 SW26 97382 G 11/19-20 67 25 5 19 70 S 6 6 2 1 W71 3752 SW28 88806 G 11/19-21 67 25 5 18 72 S 6 6 2 1 W71 2954 SW25 67809 G 11/19-22 67 25 5 18 74 SW 7 7 2 1 W71 2155 SW24 46811 F 11/19-23 61 25 5 17 78 SW 8 13 2 1 W71 1357 SW22 25814 P 11/20-00 61 25 5 17 81 SW 8 13 2 1 W69 1074 SW21 19774 P 11/20-01 61 25 5 17 85 SW 8 13 2 1 W67 792 SW18 13734 P 11/20-02 61 25 5 17 89 SW 8 13 2 1 W64 509 SW17 7694 P 11/20-03 61 25 5 16 92 SW 8 14 2 1 W63 453 SW16 6447 P 11/20-04 61 25 5 16 95 SW 9 14 2 1 W61 396 SW15 5201 P 11/20-05 67 24 5 16 98 SW 9 15 2 1 W60 340 SW14 3954 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111117.BIGCR.01/BOU