FNUS75 KPUB 171942
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANGE 155...FORT CARSON FD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1242 PM MST THU NOV 17 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA NOT
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS AT BURN SITE...WITH FORT
CARSON RAWS REPORTING WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 MPH GUSTING TO 17 MPH
AND BUTTES FIELD VRBO3KT. MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH PROGGED
DEW PTS WELL ABOVE OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LIKELY SEE MIN RHS IN THE
5-10 PERCENT RANGE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL GET MUCH STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY SEEING...WITH VERY LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT THE BURN SITE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK WITH POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AND WIDESPREAD
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.


MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRY...WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT THE BURN SITE TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPING WINDS UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WITH ONLY MODERATE RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. GOOD MIXING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE TOMORROW...WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
PROBABLE FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(37 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(37 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST NORTHWEST 8-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 18-24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0600. VERY GOOD AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WANKOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111117.RANGE.02/PUB