FNUS75 KBOU 211613 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 915 AM MST MON NOV 21 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE SITE. SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...THOUGH WILL BE LIGHT. ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...WITH DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-37. MIN HUMIDITY........53-58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 2-6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH BY 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-4600 FT AGL BY 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-27. MAX HUMIDITY........74-80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN GOOD. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-35. MIN HUMIDITY........50-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .THANKSGIVING DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/21-08 79 56 32 28 67 S 6 6 3 1 SW30 1198 S 8 8138 P 11/21-09 80 56 32 30 63 S 7 7 3 1 SW31 2476 S12 32694 P 11/21-10 80 56 32 30 65 S 9 14 3 1 SW32 3755 SW15 57251 F 11/21-11 80 61 39 34 59 SW10 16 3 1 SW35 5033 SW18 81807 G 11/21-12 80 61 39 35 58 SW10 17 3 1 SW33 5131 SW20 85955 G 11/21-13 80 61 39 37 53 SW10 17 3 1 SW32 5229 SW20 90102 G 11/21-14 80 61 39 36 56 SW10 16 3 1 SW30 5327 SW21 94250 G 11/21-15 80 61 39 34 61 SW10 16 3 1 W29 4557 W21 81483 G 11/21-16 80 61 39 32 68 W 9 15 3 1 W28 3788 W21 68716 G 11/21-17 90 51 27 28 77 W 9 15 3 1 W28 3018 W22 55949 F 11/21-18 90 51 27 28 76 W 9 15 3 1 W28 3135 W21 57533 F 11/21-19 90 51 27 28 74 W10 16 3 1 W29 3251 W21 59117 F 11/21-20 90 51 27 26 77 W10 16 3 1 W30 3368 W21 60701 G 11/21-21 90 51 27 27 73 W10 16 3 1 W30 3586 W22 70398 G 11/21-22 90 51 27 28 67 W10 16 2 1 W30 3804 W24 80095 G 11/21-23 67 39 17 27 69 W10 16 2 1 W32 4023 W25 89792 G 11/22-00 67 39 17 27 67 W10 17 2 1 W36 3611 W25 79512 G 11/22-01 67 39 17 26 68 W12 18 2 1 NW39 3200 W25 69232 G 11/22-02 67 39 17 24 76 W12 18 2 1 NW43 2789 W24 58952 F 11/22-03 67 39 17 22 80 W12 18 2 1 NW44 2862 W25 63957 G 11/22-04 67 39 17 24 74 W12 18 3 1 NW43 2935 W26 68962 G 11/22-05 52 10 2 24 71 W12 18 3 1 NW41 3008 W29 73967 G 11/22-06 52 10 2 22 80 W12 18 3 1 NW38 2928 W29 72222 G 11/22-07 52 10 2 22 79 W12 18 2 1 NW33 2847 W29 70477 G 11/22-08 52 10 2 26 67 SW12 18 2 1 NW28 2767 W29 68732 G 11/22-09 52 10 2 28 62 SW13 20 2 1 NW26 3019 W28 73786 G 11/22-10 52 10 2 29 61 SW15 22 2 1 NW26 3272 W28 78840 G 11/22-11 22 1 0 32 55 SW16 24 2 1 NW28 3525 W28 83894 G 11/22-12 22 1 0 33 54 SW17 26 2 1 W32 3651 W28 89367 G 11/22-13 22 1 0 35 50 SW20 29 2 1 W39 3776 W29 94840 G 11/22-14 22 1 0 34 54 W20 30 2 1 W45 3901 W30 100313 V 11/22-15 22 1 0 32 58 W18 29 2 1 W52 3174 W29 80899 G 11/22-16 22 1 0 30 64 SW17 26 2 1 W56 2447 W29 61484 G 11/22-17 13 0 0 27 71 SW16 24 2 1 NW60 1720 W28 42070 F 11/22-18 13 0 0 27 69 SW15 22 2 1 NW59 1413 W26 33376 P 11/22-19 13 0 0 27 67 SW14 21 2 1 W55 1107 SW24 24681 P 11/22-20 13 0 0 26 67 SW13 20 2 1 W52 800 SW23 15987 P 11/22-21 13 0 0 26 62 SW13 18 2 1 W52 765 SW23 15225 P 11/22-22 13 0 0 27 56 SW13 18 2 1 W52 730 SW23 14462 P 11/22-23 4 0 0 26 56 SW13 20 2 1 W52 694 SW23 13700 P 11/23-00 4 0 0 26 54 SW13 18 2 1 W52 541 SW21 10157 P 11/23-01 4 0 0 26 55 SW13 18 2 1 W52 387 SW17 6614 P 11/23-02 4 0 0 23 60 SW13 20 2 1 W52 233 SW15 3072 P 11/23-03 4 0 0 22 64 SW13 20 2 1 W52 231 SW15 3003 P 11/23-04 4 0 0 23 59 SW14 21 3 1 W51 229 SW15 2934 P 11/23-05 4 0 0 24 58 SW14 21 3 1 W49 227 SW15 2866 P 11/23-06 4 0 0 21 64 SW14 21 3 1 W47 278 SW15 3670 P 11/23-07 4 0 0 22 61 SW14 21 3 1 W46 328 SW16 4474 P 11/23-08 4 0 0 29 47 SW14 21 3 1 W45 378 SW16 5278 P 11/23-09 4 0 0 32 41 SW14 21 3 1 W45 894 SW20 18109 P 11/23-10 4 0 0 33 40 SW14 21 4 1 W46 1411 SW23 30940 P 11/23-11 4 0 0 38 33 SW14 21 4 1 W47 1927 SW26 43771 F 11/23-12 4 0 0 39 31 SW15 22 4 1 W47 2197 SW28 53562 F 11/23-13 4 0 0 43 27 SW16 23 4 1 W46 2466 SW29 63352 G 11/23-14 4 0 0 41 29 SW16 24 4 1 W46 2736 SW31 73143 G 11/23-15 4 0 0 39 32 SW16 23 4 1 W46 2060 SW29 53512 F 11/23-16 4 0 0 36 37 SW15 22 5 1 W45 1385 SW25 33881 P 11/23-17 9 0 0 33 45 SW14 21 5 1 W45 709 SW23 14251 P 11/23-18 9 0 0 32 46 SW14 21 5 1 W44 619 SW22 11906 P 11/23-19 9 0 0 32 47 SW14 21 5 1 W43 528 SW21 9561 P 11/23-20 9 0 0 30 50 SW14 21 5 1 W43 438 SW18 7216 P 11/23-21 9 0 0 31 48 SW14 20 5 1 W43 467 SW20 8076 P 11/23-22 9 0 0 33 45 SW13 20 4 1 SW43 497 SW21 8937 P 11/23-23 14 0 0 31 47 SW13 20 4 1 SW44 526 SW22 9797 P 11/24-00 14 0 0 31 46 SW13 20 4 1 SW44 421 SW20 7543 P 11/24-01 14 0 0 30 48 SW14 20 4 1 SW45 316 SW18 5290 P 11/24-02 14 0 0 27 55 SW14 21 4 1 SW45 212 SW16 3036 P 11/24-03 14 0 0 25 60 SW15 22 4 1 SW46 225 SW17 3412 P 11/24-04 14 0 0 27 54 SW15 23 4 1 SW46 239 SW18 3788 P 11/24-05 24 0 0 28 53 SW16 24 4 1 SW46 253 SW18 4164 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111121.BIGCR.01/BOU