FNUS72 KMHX 211424 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR BOGUE RD...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 924 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON NOVEMBER 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A MOIST COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........55 TO 60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............72 68 68 70 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................69 73 74 73 RH..................70 62 59 62 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 W 6 W 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 LVORI...............3 1 1 2 ADI.................11 36 31 20 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............73 77 84 91 92 87 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................65 61 59 57 57 55 RH..................81 93 96 96 90 90 20 FT WIND..........NW 3 NW 2 N 4 NE 5 NE 5 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 LVORI...............4 6 6 7 6 6 ADI.................5 4 6 6 5 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............83 81 81 73 71 73 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................55 57 64 68 70 69 RH..................90 86 75 70 71 73 20 FT WIND..........E 2 E 2 E 4 SE 4 SE 4 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 LVORI...............6 6 4 3 3 3 ADI.................3 2 2 12 18 15 HAINES INDEX........4 3 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...DAVID NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111121.BOGUE.01/MHX