FNUS75 KBOU 302233 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR REYNOLDS RANCH...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 333 PM MST WED NOV 30 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN COLD FRONT ORGANIZING OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING LATE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN PROBABLY SOMETIME AFTER 2200 MST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ITS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 0300 MST WHEN THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE BURN AREA. THEN ITS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY PRIOR TO 1500 MST WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG CONCERN IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST ESTIMATES PUT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IN THE BURN AREA. AS THE SNOW FALLS ON THURSDAY SO WILL TEMPERATURES. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW BETWEEN 2200 AND 0200...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-21. MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTH 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0200...THEN 1000-1600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW UNTIL ABOUT 1400. THEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1600...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 18 WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. MIN HUMIDITY........75-82%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10-18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. NOT AS COLD. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 5. HIGHS AROUND 16. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 5. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RENOLDS RANCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/30-14 47 7 1 44 24 W15 24 3 1 W53 5076 W36 159450 E 11/30-15 47 7 1 40 28 W13 20 3 1 W55 3861 W31 115093 V 11/30-16 47 7 1 35 34 W10 16 2 1 W58 2646 W26 70737 G 11/30-17 94 38 16 30 43 W 8 13 2 1 W56 1431 W21 26381 P 11/30-18 94 38 16 28 49 W 7 7 2 1 W54 1030 W17 18108 P 11/30-19 94 38 16 26 54 W 7 7 2 1 W48 628 W13 9834 P 11/30-20 94 38 16 25 59 W 7 7 2 1 W44 226 W 8 1561 P 11/30-21 97 72 56 23 64 NW 7 7 2 1 SW40 433 NW 9 4081 P 11/30-22 97 72 56 22 68 NE 7 7 2 1 SW38 639 N10 6601 P 11/30-23 97 72 56 21 71 E 8 13 2 1 SW37 846 NE13 9122 P 12/01-00 97 90 84 20 75 E 9 14 2 1 SW37 1087 NE14 14004 P 12/01-01 100 90 84 18 79 NE 9 15 2 1 SW37 1329 NE16 18887 P 12/01-02 100 90 84 17 82 NE10 16 2 1 SW37 1571 NE17 23770 P 12/01-03 100 90 84 16 85 NE12 18 2 1 SW36 1531 NE20 26182 P 12/01-04 100 90 84 15 88 NE13 21 2 1 SW33 1491 NE22 28593 P 12/01-05 100 91 86 13 95 NE14 22 2 1 SW32 1451 NE24 31005 P 12/01-06 100 91 86 12 95 NE14 23 2 1 SW32 1650 NE25 36895 P 12/01-07 100 91 86 12 93 NE15 23 2 1 SW33 1850 NE26 42786 F 12/01-08 100 91 86 12 87 NE15 24 2 1 SW35 2049 NE28 48676 F 12/01-09 100 91 86 12 82 NE16 26 2 1 S35 2589 NE28 63286 G 12/01-10 100 91 86 13 78 NE17 29 2 1 S33 3128 NE29 77896 G 12/01-11 91 78 65 13 76 NE18 30 2 1 S33 3668 NE29 92506 G 12/01-12 91 78 65 14 76 NE18 29 2 1 S33 3820 NE28 90459 G 12/01-13 91 78 65 14 76 NE16 26 2 1 S35 3973 NE25 88411 G 12/01-14 91 78 65 14 77 NE15 24 2 1 S33 4126 NE24 86364 G 12/01-15 91 78 65 14 75 NE14 22 2 1 S31 3787 NE22 74278 G 12/01-16 91 78 65 13 73 NE12 20 2 1 S28 3448 NE21 62192 G 12/01-17 59 37 15 10 78 NE10 16 2 1 S24 3110 NE18 50106 F 12/01-18 59 37 15 9 81 NE 8 14 2 1 S23 2853 E16 40643 F 12/01-19 59 37 15 8 83 NE 7 7 2 1 S24 2597 E14 31180 P 12/01-20 59 37 15 7 84 NE 5 5 2 1 S25 2340 E10 21716 P 12/01-21 59 37 15 7 81 E 3 3 2 1 SE20 2090 E 9 16504 P 12/01-22 59 37 15 6 78 SE 3 3 2 1 SE18 1769 SE 9 13744 P 12/01-23 27 8 2 6 77 S 3 3 2 1 SE17 1449 S 9 10985 P 12/02-00 27 8 2 6 80 S 3 3 2 1 SE15 1193 S 9 9313 P 12/02-01 27 8 2 5 85 S 3 3 2 1 SE12 938 S 9 7641 P 12/02-02 27 8 2 5 88 S 3 3 2 1 SE10 682 S10 5970 P 12/02-03 27 8 2 4 85 S 5 5 2 1 S10 559 S 9 4541 P 12/02-04 27 8 2 4 79 SW 6 6 3 1 S12 436 SW 8 3113 P 12/02-05 13 3 1 4 76 W 7 13 3 1 SW13 313 SW 6 1685 P 12/02-06 13 3 1 3 77 W 7 13 3 1 SW13 290 SW 6 1565 P 12/02-07 13 3 1 5 78 W 7 13 3 1 SW12 267 W 6 1444 P 12/02-08 13 3 1 8 73 W 7 13 3 1 SW10 244 W 6 1324 P 12/02-09 13 3 1 14 64 SW 6 6 3 1 SW 9 1345 W 7 8138 P 12/02-10 13 3 1 20 60 S 6 6 3 1 SW 9 2445 W 7 14952 P 12/02-11 44 5 1 25 58 SE 5 5 3 1 SW 9 3546 W 7 21767 P 12/02-12 44 5 1 27 55 E 3 3 3 1 SW10 4069 W 9 35263 P 12/02-13 44 5 1 29 53 E 3 3 3 1 SW13 4591 W12 48760 F 12/02-14 44 5 1 30 51 NE 3 3 3 1 SW15 5114 W14 62256 G 12/02-15 44 5 1 29 52 NE 3 3 3 1 W14 4313 W15 54450 F 12/02-16 44 5 1 27 54 NW 3 3 3 1 W12 3512 W16 46644 F 12/02-17 70 26 6 23 62 W 5 5 3 1 W 9 2710 W16 38838 P 12/02-18 70 26 6 20 68 W 6 6 3 1 W 8 2358 W15 31199 P 12/02-19 70 26 6 18 71 W 7 7 2 1 W 7 2006 NW13 23561 P 12/02-20 70 26 6 16 71 W 7 13 2 1 W 7 1653 NW12 15922 P 12/02-21 70 26 6 15 70 W 7 7 2 1 SW 9 1911 NW 9 14808 P 12/02-22 70 26 6 15 69 NW 6 6 2 1 SW12 2170 NW 8 13694 P 12/02-23 74 42 19 14 69 NW 5 5 2 1 SW15 2428 NW 6 12580 P 12/03-00 74 42 19 13 72 NW 3 3 2 1 SW16 2652 N 7 15605 P 12/03-01 74 42 19 12 77 N 3 3 2 1 SW18 2876 N 7 18629 P 12/03-02 74 42 19 11 81 N 3 3 2 1 SW20 3100 N 8 21654 P 12/03-03 74 42 19 10 86 N 3 3 2 1 SW20 3009 N 9 23450 P 12/03-04 74 42 19 9 92 NE 5 5 2 1 W20 2918 N10 25246 P 12/03-05 74 42 19 8 97 NE 5 5 2 1 W18 2827 N12 27042 P 12/03-06 74 42 19 8 100 NE 6 5 1 12/03-07 74 42 19 7 100 NE 6 6 1 12/03-08 74 42 19 8 93 NE 6 6 1 12/03-09 74 42 19 10 83 NE 7 6 1 12/03-10 74 42 19 12 74 NE 7 7 1 12/03-11 72 28 13 14 68 NE 7 13 1 12/03-12 72 28 13 15 64 NE 7 7 1 12/03-13 72 28 13 15 61 NE 6 6 1 12/03-14 72 28 13 16 59 NE 6 6 1 12/03-15 72 28 13 15 59 NE 5 6 1 12/03-16 72 28 13 15 59 NE 5 5 1 12/03-17 70 17 3 12 65 NE 3 5 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...JAY STALNACKER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111130.REYNO.01/BOU