FNUS74 KEPZ 152149
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NOGAL PILE BURN...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 PM MST THU DEC 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MST ON DECEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.  WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT
OF THE WEST ACROSS MOST OF THE SACRAMENTOS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN BETWEEN.  WITH THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW... VENT
RATES WILL REMAIN POOR THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT VENT RATES TO
REMAIN POOR FRIDAY.

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY THIS WEEKEND...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY PULLS EAST.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-70 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........33 AT IGNITION...MAX 34.
RH..................75 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING VARIABLE TOWARDS EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAXIMUM 5500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 4 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........22,000 KNOT-FEET (POOR)

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 16.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1300 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 13 KNOTS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 35.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........30,600 KNOT-FEET (POOR)

$$

FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111215.NOGAL.01/EPZ