FNUS75 KGJT 271751
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FIRE MOUNTAIN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MST TUE DEC 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MST ON DECEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL BRUSH NORTHWEST COLORADO...BUT WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK AND TOO
FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE BURN SITE WITH MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. ONE STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY THURSDAY WHICH
MIGHT BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
INVERSIONS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL STILL HOLD IN SNOW
COVERED VALLEYS. THEREFORE MIXING WILL REMAIN POOR AT THE BURN SITE.

***AN AFTERNOON OBSERVATION FROM THE BURN SITE WOULD BE VERY
 VALUABLE FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. FOR THIS FORECAST...I ASSUMED THE
 BURN SITE WOULD REMAIN BELOW THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BY LOOKING
 AT A FEW OBSERVED TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA...INCLUDING PAONIA
 RESERVOIR...JAY RAWS...PAONIA 1SW AND HOTCHKISS 5WNW.***



.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%)...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON (60-70% HIGH CLOUDS).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-39 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 0-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8600 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 0-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 5000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%)...DECREASING CLOUDS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-41 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 0-5 MPH...AT TIMES
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 13000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    WEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...STEVE MUELLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111227.FIREM.01/GJT