FNUS75 KGJT 291118
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE MILE...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MST THU DEC 29 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL BRUSH
NORTHWEST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MOST ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BURN SITE. DUE TO ITS HIGH ELEVATION...THE
BURN SITE WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THEREFORE SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE GOOD
CATEGORY EACH DAY.

NOTE...THIS FORECAST WAS REVIEWED AGAIN WITH THE MORNING MIXING
FORECAST. A GOOD CATEGORY IS STILL EXPECTED BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS TWO DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH WYOMING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
                    MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 18 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-NORTHWEST 30 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21100-38700 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111229.ONEMI.01/GJT