FNUS73 KPAH 031524 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR SPURGEON HOLLOW...MDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 924 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT SMOKE DISPERSION AT THE PROPOSED IGNITION TIME. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MIDDAY...BUT MAY BE SLOW TO GET THERE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........26 AT IGNITION...MAX 39. RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 18 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO A MAX OF 2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH AT IGNITION...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............26 29 33 35 37 38 38 37 RH..............42 35 30 28 26 26 27 31 20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 15 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.4 5 8 12 14 15 10 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............35 33 32 32 32 32 RH..............36 43 49 53 58 61 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 6 S 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....2000 1600 1400 1400 1400 1300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 S 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............31 35 44 47 RH..............69 69 51 43 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 5G10 NW 6G15 NW 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1400 2300 2800 TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 0 NW 23 NW 18 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...SARAH EGLY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20120103.SPURG.01/PAH