FNUS73 KUNR 151716
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PICNIC...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1016 AM MST SUN JAN 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0938 MST ON JANUARY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE BURN SITE BY NOON TO 100 PM MST.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH. GUSTIER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS...SO
SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY REACH THE BURN SITE...BUT THIS IS
NOT CERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING WHEN THE FRONT
PASSES...AND CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR SO.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50...DROPPING WHEN THE
                    COLD FRONT PASSES REACHING THE
                    30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 TO
                    60 PERCENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AT 5 MPH...BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AT 9 TO 15 MPH IN THE
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...DROPPING
                    TO 2 OR LOW POTENTIAL AFTER THE COLD
                    FRONT PASSES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 TO 1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 9 ABOVE.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................24 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 15.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................57 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 TO 2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

$$
FORECASTER...CALDERON
REQUESTED BY...PLOCECK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120115.PICNI.01/UNR